The Market Crash - so I missed it by 5 months

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:16 pm

viewtopic.php?t=19426

There will bw a bounce back up - not to previous levels but probably 63% or so off today's low. Then the real pain will begin.

I can't tell you how deep this correction will be = 10% is a correction - but this could go all the way down 20% and qualify as a full blown crash.

In either case - it's happening.

Derron · Post by **Derron** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:35 pm

mvscal wrote:This isn't even half way to a correction by your criteria let alone a crash.

Rack that...

This has been coming on for a long time..I am goin bottom fishing....there are some good values out there now....

My bro in law has been waiting for this for a long time... I imagine he will have bottom fished about $ 200,000 by the end of the week.

Mikey · Post by **Mikey** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 10:26 pm

The Chargers will win the Super Bowl!!!!

Well...it may not happen this year or next, but if it ever does that means I'm right.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 11:27 pm

mvscal wrote:This isn't even half way to a correction by your criteria let alone a crash.

Were you under the impression it was done?

Crashes don't happen in a day - But they begin in a day.

2001 out front should have told ya.

Please, by all means buy the dips, the market will dead cat bounce, probably starting tomorrow.

It will gain back, at most 63% of today's loss then fall again.

Right through today's floor.

Atomic Punk · Post by **Atomic Punk** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:13 am

http://www.marketvolume.com/info/stock_ ... rashes.asp

I remember quitting my day job which was spending 10 to 11 hours a day in the classroom. Since I was so smart in investing

my broker friend convinced me to quit teaching and work for him. I made a Zy$$$ couple hundred thou in a few years and he thought I was the Golden Boy.

As I was working towards my Series 7 and he working on getting a PGA card so I could run his business for him while he toured... the market crashed hard March 10, 2000. (I forget who the President was at the time, since Bush's current economy is so great also... I saw many millionaires lose their asses and of course my Zybodebucks were gone in no time.

Alan Greenspan was the most powerful person on the planet, and his "irrational exuburence" speech got the sell program going. Abby Joseph Cohen (another well-known Jew) came in afterwards and said she's pulling all of her positions back to 10% cash. The markets tanked that day and everybody had their asses handed to them.

If you get a subscription to The Investor's Business Daily, then you wil see how they do fundamentals. The biggest think that moves a stock price is institutional investors. You just need to identify a good company with a product nobody else has and watch for institutional $$$ going in. That is how I found the unknown company called CREE. Luckily, I cashed out those earning because it afforded me trips around the world and to buy dirt bikes and live the fatass life for a few years.

Well, it was fun while it lasted but it was a humbling experience losing your ass like that. After that, that's where the shit job smack came to my side as fodder for this board. Damn, imagine working in a pr0n shop in New Jersey, an auto parts regional distribution center, and a few cool jobs, but most were shit. THAT my friends, is where ole' zztop learned to get his shit together.

Of course, you can argue it isn't, but losing a few hundred grrr wakey wakey's you the fuck up.

I don't know what the future of the stock market is, but if you are in for the long-haul and pick good companies, you just have to ride it out. Overall, stocks are the best speculative investment if they are good companies with new products.

My 2 cents.

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:06 am

The best investment you can make is in yourself.

Of course, that means you have a buisness mind, which from what I gather on this board, is a genetic thang.

Yeah, I have the ticker rolling as I post on this board, and talk about fucking addictive... anyways

I would recommend to anyone on this board... start your own buisness if you're interested in making money.

but know your limits... if you suck at buisness, invest in a buisness that doesn't suck, and keep your day job.

It's rather simple.

rozy · Post by **rozy** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:17 am

420 wrote:The best investment you can make is in yourself.

Dude, you could, like, write a book with that shit. Or at least go on the Oprah show... You could, like, give her the truth and shit.

rozy · Post by **rozy** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:23 am

Like, I wanna give this a try now:

You got to love yourself first, then you can love french fries.

Um...

Rice-a-Roni gives m2 a little boni

getting better

UNCLE SAM WANTS MARSHAWN

Piece of cake.......and truth

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:23 am

rozy wrote:
420 wrote:The best investment you can make is in yourself.

Dude, you could, like, write a book with that shit. Or at least go on the Oprah show... You could, like, give her the truth and shit.

Do you watch Oprah?

Is it worth my time?

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 4:26 am

rozy wrote:Like, I wanna give this a try now:

You got to love yourself first, then you can love french fries.

Um...

Rice-a-Roni gives m2 a little boni

getting better

UNCLE SAM WANTS MARSHAWN

Piece of cake.......and truth

This is why you're a retired cop... on a low income.

My bad, for asking you the last question I did.

XXXL · Post by **XXXL** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:06 am

I will be watching this trend in the manana...

Relive my economic undergrad moments, i.e., crash of 87.......

roller coaster

kcdave · Post by **kcdave** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:29 am

Scott, Im normally playing at another table when you walk in to this casino. I dont pay much attention, but the bimbo that brought me my last few rounds tells me you normally win more than you lose.

Now that the house seems to have changed dealers, I need to ask you a question for a friend of mine. He has around 120-130k, still even after today, riding at the mutual fund table. Would he be better served playing there night in and night out for the next 5-10 years, move to another table, or cash out and leave the casino for a while?

Atomic Punk · Post by **Atomic Punk** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:02 am

I've yet to meet anybody that can say mutual funds made them anything above what bank interest used to pay.

Most of these mutual fund managers are sales people that got MBA's in finance or something. They don't know shit other than to suck balls and sell a product the company is pimping.

You're better off researching stocks and getting an education in WHY stock prices move. That's the whole thing though. All of these CNBC and corrupt whores are going to mislead you because they are into "sales."

If you've seen Maria Bartiromo over the years and think she's on TV for her knowledge, then you're fucked. Not to go Dins on you, but going to Vegas is just as risky until somebody invents a new product in demand. The 401k's and 403b's are just products that make the holders money like banks. You get a bit of return, but pay for not knowing WTF you're doing with your money.

Yes, I'm being sarcastic, but am telling you what I've seen from the days of working for da man at First Union (now Wachovia Securities). Watch your money fools. Someone is waiting to take it from you.

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:39 am

kcdave wrote:Scott, Im normally playing at another table when you walk in to this casino. I dont pay much attention, but the bimbo that brought me my last few rounds tells me you normally win more than you lose.

Now that the house seems to have changed dealers, I need to ask you a question for a friend of mine. He has around 120-130k, still even after today, riding at the mutual fund table. Would he be better served playing there night in and night out for the next 5-10 years, move to another table, or cash out and leave the casino for a while?

You know what would be great to have here? A stock market forum.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:16 pm

kcdave wrote:Scott, Im normally playing at another table when you walk in to this casino. I dont pay much attention, but the bimbo that brought me my last few rounds tells me you normally win more than you lose.

Now that the house seems to have changed dealers, I need to ask you a question for a friend of mine. He has around 120-130k, still even after today, riding at the mutual fund table. Would he be better served playing there night in and night out for the next 5-10 years, move to another table, or cash out and leave the casino for a while?

Dave,

In November I saw a significant correction or crash coming and moved to 100% cash (ie; sold all my Mututal Funds and went into Money Markets).

My opinion is yesterday was the begining of that move.

I can't tell you how long this sell off will run or how much it will sell off.
I'll only know the end (or close to it) when I see it.

Is the 120K "everything" you have for retirement? If so, you need to realocate anyway.
If your diversified - then my advice would still be take your profit on the funds - move into a money market and wait till the bloodletting stops.

Cuda · Post by **Cuda** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:56 pm

Why didn't you warn me about my Farmland Industries stock, KC Buttcheese?

Mikey · Post by **Mikey** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:34 pm

Sell low / buy high is what I always said.

BSmack · Post by **BSmack** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:39 pm

mvscal wrote:Worst advice ever. You two morons deserve each other.

All politics and smack aside, where do you see the markets going?

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:48 pm

Amazing the have experts we have who offer no substantial advice.

Investors Business Daily, no less also called an end to the Bull Market today - but I'm sure MVS & Mikey know a lot more than they do.

Watching today's "bounce" - Where the "bargain hunters" are buying so far is showing less than 20% recovery of yesterdays drop.

Gee..... Imagine that.

Gosh, if the drop yesterday makes everything such a good value today, shouldn't big money just be buying everything in sight?

Freaking Hilarious.

The Older Guys on here are the ones that really need to be concerned. If your anywhere close to 50 and have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, then you are flirting with disaster. But hey, what do I know - right?

I'm just the messenger - the tape is the one that tells the story

Derron · Post by **Derron** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:54 pm

Atomic Punk wrote:I've yet to meet anybody that can say mutual funds made them anything above what bank interest used to pay.

Most of these mutual fund managers are sales people that got MBA's in finance or something. They don't know shit other than to suck balls and sell a product the company is pimping.

You're better off researching stocks and getting an education in WHY stock prices move.

Bwwaahaaaa....... Dude... head down to your local store and pickup :

1. Smart Money Mutal Fund issue - Feb 07
2. Kplingers Mutual Funds 2007 Spring Issue.

Read them and then go back to your library and get on the internet and research mutual funds.

Just because it is a mutual fund does not mean its a hands or brain off thing. You have to research the funds, and allocate your deposits according to your financial goals and plan. Thats deep I know.. but it is the way it works.

If you do good research, and invest your funds and don't depend on some slick shoe sales idiot for "financial advice ) (i.e. churning, dry fucking, hosing), you can make a hell of a lot better than any bank interest.

If you can't , then you deserve the fucking your getting.

Owning a solid business is the best way to make money above and beyond a salary or hourly wage nothing job.

Pay yourself a decent wage, take a portion of the net profits and remove them from the business and invest them. Reinvest the other profits in the business or cash reserves. Repeat that process every year.

Even with balanced mutual funds, I still spend at least 8 to 12 hours a week on personal investmetns OUTSIDE of the business.

Say... you want to make 4% on some of your money ?? I need another truck and I will pay you 4% on that loan... that kicks the shit out of bank interest at .15% right ??

Hell, I will pay you 4% on any amount you want to loan me. I will invest it and make at least 8% on it AFTER I pay you that kick fucking ass 4%..you game ??

Tom In VA · Post by **Tom In VA** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:54 pm

KC Scott,

Total noob here when it comes to stock market stuff. But wouldn't a more fair and prudent analysis of yesterday's plummet have to take place over a time period longer than 1 day ?

If so, how long would that time period be ?

Derron · Post by **Derron** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:57 pm

KC Scott wrote:
The Older Guys on here are the ones that really need to be concerned. If your anywhere close to 50 and have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, then you are flirting with disaster. But hey, what do I know - right?

Not much apparently....no shit??? 50 years olds should not be 100% in stocks...??? Fucking a... blow me down Popeye...thats fucking news to me ???

If you are.. then you got fucked... if you made bad decisions..

Can anybody out there research and make their own investment decisions with out a shark helping them ??

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:41 pm

Tom In VA wrote:KC Scott,

Total noob here when it comes to stock market stuff. But wouldn't a more fair and prudent analysis of yesterday's plummet have to take place over a time period longer than 1 day ?

If so, how long would that time period be ?

Go back in the history of the Market, and look at charts these Bear Markets:

Dow Jones 84
Dow 87
Dow 90
Dow 94
Dow 98
Nasdaq 2000

All of them began with High distribution (sell) days on greater than average volume.
Like I said earlier, a market doesn't crash in a day.

Before you go further understand that Charts are all about following big money flow in and out of the market -

Now Look at this 3 year chart of the Nasdaq:

Notice the long red candles at the market peaks (2191 & 2378) -
Immediatley after each a decline of around 10%+

The bigger question is if this is a Intertrend IT sell off and a continuation of the market from 2002 or something worse.

Look at this chart and you'll see a black tredline dating from the Aug 04 market bottom:

The Naz followed this trend until it broke last May - it then came back above the trendline in late Oct -
At that point we were on borrowed time - And that's when I went 100% cash

We are now back at that trendline with yesterday's sell off once we puncture through, I believe the drop will go to test 2125 (Blue Line):

If I'm correct and it holds it will have been a 16% correction off the high.

The variable on 2125 holding is would be the third hit of the trendline. Typically it takes three hits for a trendline - so that may not be the bottom.

My Guess is that it is, and that bottom will concide with something like the Fed reducing the prime.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:44 pm

mvscal wrote:
KC Scott wrote:If your anywhere close to 50 and have 100% of your portfolio in stocks, then you are flirting with disaster. But hey, what do I know - right?
You know nothing. Less than nothing even since you shit your pants and bailed out at the peak of bull market.

I got out in November - and Gee.... Guess what - The market sold off yesterday to it's Dec. level.

Yea, I missed the last few points, but I guess that doesn't really matter now does it?

You still remain a clueless sheep.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:12 pm

mvscal wrote:
In general, I think we're going to see a lot of volatility through the remainder of Q1 due to widely varying reactions to the sell off which we've seen today. It should stabilize at a lower level in Q2, but I believe an overall sluggish economic performance in Q2 will keep it from heating back up again any time soon.

In other words it's going down?

Brilliant deduction.

The wildcard is the current situation in China. It bears watching very closely.

To some degree the tightening of China liquidity is a concern on a global basis.

But your also omitting:

Corporate profits dropping into single digits for the remainder of 07
The Crisis in the Subprime Mortgage Industry
Lowered GPD and PMI

Tom In VA · Post by **Tom In VA** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:14 pm

Thanks KC.

So what are you personally looking for to indicate it's time to get back "in" ?

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:16 pm

mvscal wrote: The bottom line here is that you were wrong then and you're wrong now. Go ahead and try to paper over your ignorance with lots of colorful charts you don't really understand.

Translation: Scott made money while I lost money.
Now in an effort to save face, I ignore this fact and try to spin it to make myslef look less the fool

Funny how your previous post you acknowledge

It should stabilize at a lower level in Q2

Meaning the market will drop

Hilarious dance your doing, thanks for the BWA

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:23 pm

mvscal wrote:The wildcard is the current situation in China. It bears watching very closely.

Ummmm... no it doesn't.

A 9% drop in China means absolutely nothing.

Hardly anyone invests in China.

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:29 pm

mvscal wrote:Thanks for participating m2ool. We'll get back to you when we need an update on the windchime "industry."

I'm just pointing out how little you know.

Would you care to prove me wrong about China???

I could use the laugh.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:41 pm

mvscal wrote:
KC Scott wrote:Translation: Scott made money while I lost money.
You aren't making shit holding cash, dumbfuck.

5.6% + what I've made short (around 17K so far) - Hmmmmm Doesn't sound like nothing.

Thanks for Playing

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:45 pm

mvscal wrote:Events have already done so. The selloff yesterday was in large part a reaction to the situation in China.

You really dont know what the fuck you're talking about do you?

lol!!!

I guess that google search didn't go so well for ya. I'll give ya some more time.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 8:55 pm

QID and MZZ - Might want to check into them yourself

And 5.6% the going rate at GE MM

420 · Post by **420** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:14 pm

mvscal wrote:
420 wrote:
mvscal wrote:Events have already done so. The selloff yesterday was in large part a reaction to the situation in China.

You really dont know what the fuck you're talking about do you?

Time for another ride on the old plunger pony, ay?

Dow slides 500 points in sell-off on China fears
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNew ... 5520070227

Market sell-off: TSX tumbles 364 points, Dow drops 416
Last Updated: Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 5:25 PM ET
CBC News
The benchmark index of the Toronto stock market endured one of its bigger one-day point losses on Tuesday, following a major stock sell-off in China.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/02/ ... rkets.html

Dow drops 416 in global stock sell-off
Amid fears of recession, analysts claim there's no reason for investors to panic.
By Madlen Read, Associated Press

The decline was nonetheless explosive, sending the Dow briefly down more than 546 points during afternoon trading. It was sparked by a sudden 9 percent slide in Chinese stocks...
http://www.presstelegram.com/news/ci_5319842

Dow plummets after Chinese sell-off
NEW YORK, Feb. 27 (UPI) -- The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 545 points before recovering Tuesday afternoon after a Chinese market sell-off and a poor U.S. durable-goods report.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/dow_plumme ... 313-3282r/

Dow Average Falls 416 Points After China Sell-Off
By JEREMY W. PETERS and DAVID BARBOZA
Published: February 28, 2007
Stocks in the United States plummeted today after a surprising plunge in the Shanghai market provoked worries worldwide about the global economy and the valuation of share prices.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/28/busin ... ei=5087%0A

China volatility sparks U.S. sell-off; Shanghai index gains today
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2 ... usat_x.htm

Market stripped by China sell-off
The Australian share market closed 2.7 per cent lower after a sell-off on the Chinese stock exchange sent shockwaves around the globe.

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P's 500 Index suffered its biggest one-day fall in almost four years, as investors dumped stocks exposed to Chinese demand following an almost nine per cent decline on China's Shanghai Composite Index.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/mar ... 69600.html
Giddy up, lil cowboy!!

Like I said... you really dont know what the fuck you're talking about.

lol!!!

Do you know anyone that invests in China???

Didn't think so.

Thanks for playing.

Taking financial advise from a goverment worker that posts on a message board all day...

...not such a good idea.

Cuda · Post by **Cuda** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:23 pm

KC Scott wrote: .

When does the serpent jump out of its snatch?

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:41 pm

Tom In VA wrote:Thanks KC.

So what are you personally looking for to indicate it's time to get back "in" ?

Tom,

A good book is "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil.
He founded Investors Business Daily - one of the best resources for financial information available

His definition of the start of a new trend:

"Important turning points are marked by finding evidence that large institutions had regained their appetites for equities. While there are no guarantees, this method has a very respectable track record. Historically, that would be evidenced by a significant follow-through rally four to nine days after the first big move up after a longer downturn. Requirements include the major indices rallying 1% to 2%, and on greater-than-average volume, in that five-day window. "

Basically, you me and everybody we know and they know, etc. Could all buy stocks and the market would still drop.
What your trying to do is find those times when institutions are Buying.
This is the key to volume - beacuse only when they are buying are prices going up.
Just like yesterdays drop on volume signifies they are selling.

Look at this chart of the Naz from last summer:

3 distinct things happened:

1. The downward trendline was broken
2. Voulme increased substantially on multiple days
3. The Naz went back above it's 50 day Moving Average

This method will never catch anything at it's true rock bottom - that's just guessing or gambling.
But it works well enough to catch most major trend changes

Justa Heel · Post by **Justa Heel** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 10:05 pm

Atomic Punk wrote:I've yet to meet anybody that can say mutual funds made them anything above what bank interest used to pay.

Most of these mutual fund managers are sales people that got MBA's in finance or something. They don't know shit other than to suck balls and sell a product the company is pimping.

You're better off researching stocks and getting an education in WHY stock prices move.

As if a tard like yourself will EVER have better information than the market, except for MAYBE something involving a plunger manufacturer.

BWHAAAAA! :P

Derron · Post by **Derron** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:13 pm

KC Scott wrote:
mvscal wrote:
KC Scott wrote:Translation: Scott made money while I lost money.
You aren't making shit holding cash, dumbfuck.
Sure he is... about 3% or 4%...thats cool by his numerology and snake oil, tea leaf investing.

5.6% + what I've made short (around 17K so far) - Hmmmmm Doesn't sound like nothing.

Thanks for Playing

Sure he is... about 3% or 4%...thats cool by his numerlogy and snake oil, tea leaf investing.

Mister Wizard...Mister Wizard??? !! ...What is behind the curtain for the next quarter ..please tell me so I can make a killing like you...

Fucking a dude... you can retire on those nubmers in about ...oh a hundred years ?? hundred and five ?? Never ??

My father in law is 86 fucking years old and made 14% on 2 million, and he just watchs the ticker and trades over the phone, and he is only about 10% cash..duh..

I guess you can just keep shorting and then when that tanks you can gleefully rub your hands over that stellar, market busting 5.6%.

I guess my 37% net profit in my business last year just can't match up to that fucking windfall.

Justa Heel · Post by **Justa Heel** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:23 pm

Derron wrote: Fucking a dude...

I'm sure you are.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:47 pm

The 5.6% is a GE Money Market.

The Short ETFs QID and MZZ - as well as selected shorts in other stocks account for almost $17,000 booked profit since I became bearish in November.

The trading pattern for QID is really pretty simple - Buy when RSI(2) is 10 or below - sell when RSI(2) is 70 or above.

Yesterday sold QID at 54.80 when it pierced the upper Bolinger band -
Next Buy signal for QID should be around $52.02, though it may not get there without one last push from the bulls

Now that QID has broken through the 50 DMA the RSI may only touch 30 -
Next Buy I'll move the RSI out to 14 for the swing sell

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:50 pm

Justa Heel wrote:
Derron wrote: Fucking a dude...
I'm sure you are.

LOL @ Me for just charting a detailed explanation to Derron