Call your shot...Iraqi end game predictions

[Luther]

The war in Iraq started when I was riding some small tourist bus outside of Beijing, China, in the spring of 2003. We had quite a board discussion regarding what would happen in Iraq, what would happen to Saddam, whether WMD would be found, whether Sunni and Shiite's could live together. Then in the spring of 2006 I went to Jordan and Israel and the Iraq war was still trudging along.

I can tell you this; The people who posted back then that probably were closest to nailing it on the head probably was Bsmack. I can remember him arguing that it would turn into some huge quagmire, and we'd be lucky to get out of their with our asses. mvscal had great arguments, typically on the history of the area and its people, but as the war played out he argued that this war was totally fucked up, mismanaged and the Iraqi people weren't stepping up to fight for their country.

LTS definitely had the mess called right to some degree....Remember TVO when he had his thread about the rising death count ? How each day he'd update the totals and it kind of pissed off a fair amount of the War supporters...Tom in Va. basically thought we'd prevail, the Iraq people would stand up and be accountable. Myself? I was kind of in the middle between Tom and LTS. I wasn't sold on this "Nation Building" crap. Take out Saddam and determine if the weapons were there and then get the flock out.

So now we are toward the supposed end game. Repubs want it to end prior to the elections as they don't want the baggage. Petraeus probably has until late August or September to make some late game Flutie pass to salvage this mess. Talking heads on FOX or MSNBC or CNN have been throwing out suggestions like, "Send the troops to the Iran border and stifle the weapons coming in that were killing our troops, " to "Make Maliki and his people to stand up and get this shit working or we're gone."

I want predictions for the next two years. I'll go back later and see who had the best vision for the near future.

Luth prediction: I don't think I'll win this little prediction game. World politics and trying to breakdown other world leaders and how they think the war should end is just not my strong point. But I think the insurgency and the killing of innocents will continue just out of reach of where the US surge is working. Iraq won't be able to defend itself, Iran/Syria will still be pumping in support for the bad guys...we will leave in not much different of an exit as when we quit in Vietnam. Then, I think the Shiite's (majority) might do so big time fandango on the Sunni's and we will see more deaths than probably in the fall of Cambodia. Iraq basically becomes the new bootcamp for all our little friends. I'll have to admit that I remember that I said years ago that I envisioned that in about 10 years that Baghdad would thrive, and become a lively capital and that I might be sitting in some cafe drinking some coffee. Obviously I was way off on that.

Make your call.

Rip City

p.s. I'll get the death pool midseason standings hopefully this week.

[LTS TRN 2]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/17/14638/6423

Hopefully a Nuremberg-style noose will properly conclude this nightmare of American history.

In the immediate future, the return of Netanyahu to power as the leader of the Likud will signal a jump-start of Armegeddon, as it were. Like the Jews of Warsaw, ironically, the Palestinians of Gaza are being murdered in slow genocidal fashion by a vicious and fanatical race-state.

140,000 Turkish troops are presently poised on Iraq's border for necessary herding of Kurds, etc.

The American war machine is on its last six months of its present capability--despite the unrelenting air strikes, etc.

How these imminent prospects will combine and play out? Well, I wouldn't count on any Return of Jesus!

WW

[ElvisMonster]

I honestly believe that the only way that we can extricate ourselves from Iraq without ceding the entire region to Iran is to invade Iran and leave it in the same mess that we'd be leaving Iraq in. Kind of like a do-over.

As soon as we get done fucking the infrastructure in Iran and planting the seeds for some kind of factional power struggle, we bail. Of course the entire Middle East would be kind of bent about this, but then we elect a new president shortly after the Iran pullout. New president talks about how fucked it was for us to invade both countries and pledges billions of dollars in reconstruction aid while kissing a bunch of foreign ass for the next four years. All better.

[ElvisMonster]

Please fix that url. Please? For the children.

[PSUFAN]

Prediction: Iraq will be partitioned, into Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd sections. The Shiites section will end up absorbed by Iran, and the Kurd section will be threatened by Turkey.

All three sections will be utter shitholes - like all of Afghanistan is now.

The US will stave off a Turkish invasion, and our focused presence there will finally lead to oil production by multinationals.

[Derron]

Iraq will still be in turmoil and under at least one or two more goverments before the US occupation shit settles out.

W has got his dick in a vice big time. Simple occupationary forces are sustaining casualties that are unacceptable to the American public.

I predict another 2000 years of goverments overthrows, dictatorial goverments, tribal conflict, beheadings, camel fucking, oppression of women and general mayhem, and no chance in hell of a democracy in any Muslim country in the Middle East.

Sincerely,

History

[Tom In VA]

Tom In VA believed that our president sent troops to Iraq in the best interest of our country and as a matter of national security and .... global security. It's in the annals of this board and the other one.

Tom In VA also thought we would do well to not shoot ourselves in the foot and get behind the effort as the effort was going to be made with our without "support" from the people here at home and regardless of political affiliation.

I had hope. I still do, I have to. I've never once resorted to the "my cousin's best friend knew a guy who was over there and he said" bullshit. But ... well I won't now either. I won't resort to pandering to bunch of internet fuck offs.

As long as one GI in theatre has hope and faith in the mission, far be it for me to discourage him or her.


That's my bottom line.

[LTS TRN 2]

In the theatre, meanwhile,

"And they were all, you know, blown up and screaming, and we were all, you know, like whatever.."
http://www.seeing-stars.com/OC/TheatreLobby.jpg

[Mikey]

Dammit, I had something to post here before I realized that Tom had made his entrance. Oh well, I'll post it anyway. Here's my prediction:

The US withdraws all of its forces from Iraq in early 2008. Many in the US are disgusted by our seemingly cowardly retreat and the public's lack of support for our fighting troops. More disgusted than most is our friend Tom in VA. Disgusted but also freed from the unnatural age restrictions placed on Americans who want to enlist, Tom travels to Iraq and joins the Iraqi police force. Tom is last seen on top of a hill outside Baghdad mowing down insurgents with a mini gatling gun, a la Jesse the Body in Predator.

[Derron]

and the public's lack of support for our fighting troops.

Maybe from bleeding cunt liberal cocksuckers like you. You know it is possible to support our troops an disagree with the mission and what they are doing. My perception is that the support for our fighting troops IS there, but the general disagreement is with the way W has prosecuted the war in the last 2 years, the casualty counts and rightly so.

Our troops do what they are told to do and do it without question. Maybe they don't exactly think it is right, but they do it anyway, and you should thank God there are people willing to do that.

Is the war in Iraq the war on terror ?? I think so, and we probably should take it a few other places, but do it with such force and overwhelming superiority those rag fucks would never fuck with us.

But that ain't happening anytime soon, so in the meantime liberal piece of shit fucks like you who don't support the troops run their shit face pie holes about liberal cunt bleeding, whining and hand wringing youselfs to a frenzy, convincing youself the public does not support the troops,when they do, but like most liberal agendas, you are all fucked up as usual.

Got any family in country or in the military ??

Didn't think so ..so go fuck yourself now you faggot commie liberal cocksucker.

[Tom In VA]

Dammit, I had something to post here before I realized that Tom had made his entrance. Oh well, I'll post it anyway. Here's my prediction:

The US withdraws all of its forces from Iraq in early 2008. Many in the US are disgusted by our seemingly cowardly retreat and the public's lack of support for our fighting troops. More disgusted than most is our friend Tom in VA. Disgusted but also freed from the unnatural age restrictions placed on Americans who want to enlist, Tom travels to Iraq and joins the Iraqi police force. Tom is seen on top of a hill outside Baghdad mowing down insurgents with a mini gatling gun, a la Jesse the Body in Predator. After which the last vision of Tom is of him leading the civilians in a rousing version of "Uncle Muj's Band" down by the Tigris.

I hate you.

[Goober McTuber]

Got any family in country

No, but I have an uncle who’s incontinent.

[Tom In VA]

Got any family in country

No, but I have an uncle who’s incontinent.

Sounds like he needs the "Up Armor" kit for his Bummer.

[Mikey]

Dammit, I had something to post here before I realized that Tom had made his entrance. Oh well, I'll post it anyway. Here's my prediction:

The US withdraws all of its forces from Iraq in early 2008. Many in the US are disgusted by our seemingly cowardly retreat and the public's lack of support for our fighting troops. More disgusted than most is our friend Tom in VA. Disgusted but also freed from the unnatural age restrictions placed on Americans who want to enlist, Tom travels to Iraq and joins the Iraqi police force. Tom is seen on top of a hill outside Baghdad mowing down insurgents with a mini gatling gun, a la Jesse the Body in Predator. After which the last vision of Tom is of him leading the civilians in a rousing version of "Uncle Muj's Band" down by the Tigris.

I hate you.

I like your ending better.

[PSUFAN]

You know it is possible to support our troops an disagree with the mission and what they are doing. My perception is that the support for our fighting troops IS there, but the general disagreement is with the way W has prosecuted the war in the last 2 years, the casualty counts and rightly so.

Lots of folks - including a lot of "liberals" - have been saying exactly the same thing since the war started.

Now, everyone has pretty much come together and understood that supporting the troops and supporting George W. Bush's approach to the War on Terror are two different issues altogether.

Everyone, that is, except maybe Tony Snow...and Tom in Va.

[Tom In VA]

Everyone, that is, except maybe Tony Snow...and Tom in Va.

How so ?

Iraq was the battleground the U.S. chose, awhile ago in fact and even prior to Bush taking command.

As for the errors and miscues that all wars have on strategic and tactical levels, I don't believe my comment has been anything than "I'm not qualified to assess ...."

[Blueblood]

Maybe next time you'll grow a "set" and actually think for yourself...

What's the death count of our servicemen/women now???

Tom In VA believed that our president sent troops to Iraq in the best interest of our country

[PSUFAN]

i.e., you duck that part of the discussion.

Regime change in Iraq was definitely on the roster, but the approach taken by the Bush team was unique - uniquely short-sighted.

[Tom In VA]

but the approach taken by the Bush team was unique - uniquely short-sighted.

As compared to your unaccountable hindsight, I'd say you're correct.

[Blueblood]

but the approach taken by the Bush team was unique - uniquely short-sighted.

As compared to your unaccountable hindsight, I'd say you're correct.

[Tom In VA]

http://www.bigmagic.com/pages/blackj/dixckcvr.jpg


Maybe next time you'll grow a "set" and actually think for yourself...

Oh man, cool and a brand new troll. Welcome to the board.

So you post a link to a picture of the "Dixie Chicks". So you equate agreeing with musical acts whose sole method of revenue is "mass appeal" to sell their music as "thinking for [oneself]". Thanks for sharing that. And you use Entertainment Weekly to keep you "informed" of geopolitical and defense issues.

Bwahahahaha.

[Blueblood]

http://www.bigmagic.com/pages/blackj/dixckcvr.jpg


Maybe next time you'll grow a "set" and actually think for yourself...

Oh man, cool and a brand new troll. Welcome to the board.

So you post a link to a picture of the "Dixie Chicks". So you equate agreeing with musical acts whose sole method of revenue is "mass appeal" to sell their music as "thinking for [oneself]". Thanks for sharing that. And you use Entertainment Weekly to keep you "informed" of geopolitical and defense issues.

Bwahahahaha.

"My bad... I thought you were quick enough to get the point being made".

Tom, let me ax you somethin'... "Are you EVER able to see below the surface"?

[Y2K]

What an enlightened Shit Troll.

The Fucking Dixie Chicks?

Listening to that shit music alone should give you a good reason to blow your brains out for being such a moron.

Just Do It!

Society as a whole will thank you for it.

[PSUFAN]

but the approach taken by the Bush team was unique - uniquely short-sighted.

As compared to your unaccountable hindsight, I'd say you're correct.

Tom...are you really contending that I'm only now suggesting Bush's approach to be the wrong one?

[Tom In VA]

"My bad... I thought you were quick enough to get the point being made".

Tom, let me ax you somethin'... "Are you EVER able to see below the surface"?

Point taken and considered.

[Derron]

What an enlightened Shit Troll.

The Fucking Dixie Chicks?

Listening to that shit music alone should give you a good reason to blow your brains out for being such a moron.

Just Do It!

Society as a whole will thank you for it.

But he heard it on the news media so it must be true....

Oh wow.. look at this..here let me create a new troll to get over on the dudes at T1B..they will never guess it is me...

[Tom In VA]

but the approach taken by the Bush team was unique - uniquely short-sighted.

As compared to your unaccountable hindsight, I'd say you're correct.

Tom...are you really contending that I'm only now suggesting Bush's approach to be the wrong one?

Not at all.

[PSUFAN]

So what part of saying the same thing now reveals "unaccountable hindsight"?

Tom, you were the one questioning the patriotism of those who didn't agree with Bush's approach. You were the one failing to recognize that to support the troops was not tantamount to support for Bush's approach.

There are great Americans in Iraq, doing great things, Tom. That doesn't mean that Bush's approach is the right one - not at all. One might support them and still be critical of what is being recognized now at the wrong approach.

Perhaps this will be the first time that concept will be palatable for you...that much I can understand.

[Tom In VA]

So what part of saying the same thing now reveals "unaccountable hindsight"?

You aren't in the position of making the decisions. You don't risk much being "wrong".

That's how you're not accountable. Years down the road the opinion of PSUFAN and Tom In VA won't matter much, in fact they matter very little right now.


There are those engaged in "destructive" criticism and I had a hard time deciphering whether enemy propaganda fed it or if it was the other way around. Often times I lumped them in with those providing more constructive criticism and commentary, incorrectly as hindsight suggests.

[Wolfman]

hey Luther--I bet you're glad you got this going--

then again--that may have been your aim all along !!

[Luther]

haha. I don't really need to see a re-hash of arguments posted years ago. I'm just interested to see the predictions. A little sidestep hijack for awhile is alright...

I'm heading over to the archives now to pull up the Death Pool to break down the standings. 5 pages of names and then I input them into a search (IMDB or wikpedia work good for death notices).

I think Bushy might have a couple of dead guys, and yeah yeah Bushy, I know you had one die before the new year. Sucks to have a pick die before their time. :D

Rip City

[Derron]

Maybe next time you'll grow a "set" and actually think for yourself...

What's the death count of our servicemen/women now???

Tom In VA believed that our president sent troops to Iraq in the best interest of our country

All politics aside, I would do any one of them..in a heartbeat..

[Risa]

All politics aside, I would do any one of them..in a heartbeat..

You're a cokehead. It's not like you're discriminating in the first place.
Off topic, the chick to the left looks like Seinfeld.

On topic, that was nice of Luther to give props where props were due to Bsmack
and TVO; a little perspective on a change in direction around here, instead of
pretending everyone's opinions have been static.

I think Tom's consistency comes from faith in the troops to get any job put before
them done. But I don't know. They're there now, let them succeed instead of
half-ass for poll's sake -- the same polls Clinton was condemned for studying
relentlessly, I guess.

So, why has London suffered two (three?) major REAL terrorist acts (and Spain one, and France weeks of rage), while the US only gets fake terrorist acts publicized?

[LTS TRN 2]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LctoUV- ... ed&search=

Similarities

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y9DeuAnTF0&NR=1

[BSmack]

Forecasting exactly what will happen in the next two years depends on being able to forecast what will happen at the polls in 15 months. Though I think it is safe to say that within two years we'll be down to a skeleton force in Iraq. And Iraq will be much closer to becoming a theocratic Muslim state in the mold of Iran.

Oh, and Osama bin Laden will still be a free man.

[Derron]

All politics aside, I would do any one of them..in a heartbeat..

You're a cokehead. It's not like you're discriminating in the first place.
Off topic, the chick to the left looks like Seinfeld.

On topic, that was nice of Luther to give props where props were due to Bsmack
and TVO; a little perspective on a change in direction around here, instead of
pretending everyone's opinions have been static.

I think Tom's consistency comes from faith in the troops to get any job put before
them done. But I don't know. They're there now, let them succeed instead of
half-ass for poll's sake -- the same polls Clinton was condemned for studying
relentlessly, I guess.

So, why has London suffered two (three?) major REAL terrorist acts (and Spain one, and France weeks of rage), while the US only gets fake terrorist acts publicized?

You are a troll. Its not like anybody gives a fuck what you write any way.

The chick only looks like Seinfeld to you because thats how you roll.

[War Wagon]

Forecasting exactly what will happen in the next two years depends on being able to forecast what will happen at the polls in 15 months.

So, what happens then? President Hillary or Obama?

Though I think it is safe to say that within two years we'll be down to a skeleton force in Iraq. And Iraq will be much closer to becoming a theocratic Muslim state in the mold of Iran.

Define skeleton force. 10,000 troops? 1,000 troops? They'd be sitting ducks.

What needs to happen is what needed to happen in the first place, or don't even bother. It's too fucking late to be wringing our hands over woulda', shoulda', coulda's. It's a fucking war, goddamnit. Go in there with overwhelming force and wipe out every last raghead who pops up over a sand dune w/o a white fucking flag in his hand. Take him prisoner. Sterilize the whole motherfucker and turn it into a glass fucking parking lot, if need be.

Eliminate the threat.

Move on to Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia if those fucks haven't learned that we mean fucking business.

The alternative?

Cut and run like Vietnam and be a shadowy laughingstock around the world for at least the next 10 years while we lick our wounds. Sit back and wait for the next wave of attacks to occur on our own soil, again.

You pussies disgust me. Thank God that our fore fathers had a sterner make-up, or we'd all be speaking German and Japanese right now.

[poptart]

Going in, I had Turkey plus the points.

Myself? I was kind of in the middle between Tom and LTS. I wasn't sold on this "Nation Building" crap. Take out Saddam and determine if the weapons were there and then get the flock out.

Yes, this was my wish at the beginning too.
Unless I changed my mind before I first changed my mind.
It's a bit foggy.


Two yrs later??

Similar situation, only about half the current number of U.S. troops.
Jamaican troops -- gonzo.

Bush jr. won't depart office without one final futile and stupid gesture being done.
Iran is the odds on favorite to be his Faber.

Again, take the points.

[War Wagon]

Nice, 88... however, in the meantime.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070710/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush

Bush, though, said he won't be swayed.

Rack!

That's why he was elected president, you mewling message board dumbfucks. He doesn't govern by polls, and sticks to his guns.

He's still my president, and you cunts are going to have to live with that fact for the next 17 months and change, so deal with it.

50 years from now, historians will mention W like they now do Harry Truman. He was hated when he left office almost as much as folks now hate Bush.

[poptart]

The only thing Truman and Bush have in common is slang for cunt as half of their name.