Why is your team better this year? Why is it worse?

[Killian]

I know I don't check in as often as I used to, but I'm fucking dying for some real college football talk. Now that all of the spring practices are over, you really hope that nothing is written about your team from now until the mags come out because it will just be bad news.

So, why will your team be better this year? Why will it be worse? Take one, take both, I don't care, just talk some fucking football.

Here's my take:

Why Notre Dame will be better:

If you take away the name Notre Dame and look at the last two years and the experience that has been playing the majority of the minutes, they will all be upper classmen this season. From 3 wins, to 7 wins, to more in 2009.

Schedule
Add to the upperclassmen, an extremely shitty schedule. If this talent was being coached by a coach with a proven track record and he had this schedule, 11-1 would be the expectation. Weis is far from proven, but I refuse to compromise my standards, so I'm expecting 10-2. Anything less and Weis should be fired.

Offensive Line
Looking at this team, the offensive line is dominated by seniors and has played together for a few years. If they get a solid year out of left tackle (Paul Duncan) they will have a good year. Clausen is now a junior and his career arc is very similar to Brady Quinn's. Quinn worked his ass off and exploded his junior year into one of the nation's top quarterbacks. I think Clausen could do even better. He is much more accurate than Quinn and has more weapons at his disposal. The one area where Clausen is much further behind Quinn is his feel for the pocket. Quinn wasn't very mobile, but he was mobile in the pocket. He didn't really get to that point until his junior year. If Clausen can make a similar jump, he will have an All American year.

Talent at the skill positons
ND has finally started to land elite level players at the skill positions, and they are now finding their way onto the field. Notre Dame is a faster team than thay have been since the early 90's, and the talent at the top is finally being pushed by talent in the freshman and soph class. Armando Allen finally looks to be fully recoverd from his broken leg in his senior year of high school, and he has the most speed of any ND back since Julius Jones. Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudloph are on loan from the NFL and will both be first round picks. Golden Tate has developed into a viable deep threat and won't allow defenses to double him or Floyd. Duval Kamara can become a solid #3 WR if he keeps working. Behind all of these players are 4 and 5 star talent that are looking to make an impact as well.

Defensive Backfield
It terms of raw talent, Notre Dame has a top 10 defensive backfield. This will undoubtably be the strength of the defense and there isn't a group in the country from top to bottom that I would trade with. Darrin Walls is back after a year suspension, and he will be starting with Robert Blanton at the other corner and Harrison Smith and Kyle McCarthy at the safety spots. McCarthy is twice the football player of Zbikowski, with half the pub. The backups (Sergio Brown, Raeshon McNeil and Gary Gray) could start for the majority of D1 teams.

New Coaches
Frank Verducci, Randy Hart and Tony Alford have all been welcome upgrades to this coaching staff. They are all major steps up from the former coaches and immediate and vastly improved results are expected.

Given these factors, I expect Notre Dame to be much better than last year.

How they could be worse:

For many of the same reasons I think they will be improved, the opposite could happen and turn this season into a disaster.

Schedule
If Notre Dame comes out and loses to Nevada in the first game, lights out, good night on the season. With basically a lame duck coach and a team with all of this talent in the upper class, I can see them quitting very early if they lose to Nevada or have a bad loss to UofM or MSU.

Offensive Line
This group has underachieved at every turn and there really isn't a whole lot to guess they will flip the switch in one year, outside of Frank Verducci. Putting all of your eggs in the basket of a new coach is very risky.

Front Seven
The front seven is shaky with its best players (Ethan Johnson and Brian Smith) potentially playing out of position. This group will be relying on inexperienced players to have very good years if this group will be successful. One thing that will help them is the DB's, but if the LB's don't quit running into blockers on Tenuta's blitzes, TE's will have a field day. Also, they need to have a legitimate pass rusher coming off the end. They haven't had one of those since Justin Tuck in 2002.

So if Notre Dame comes out and beats Nevada the same way they beat Pitt in 2005, I fully expect a 10-2 type of season. If they struggle like they did against SDSU in 2008, this could be a very long year.

[Van]

USC should be worse this year...

They just lost eight starters on D, to the NFL. They also lost their junior QB and their most experienced WR to the NFL, which puts a serious hurt on the continuity of the offense. The offense was expected to be the strength of the team this season. They were supposed to completely dominate, since they were going to be returning ten out of eleven starters, with only Patrick Turner leaving. The O was expected to carry the team, while the young D gelled.

On top of that, they even lost their kicker to the NFL. That's a bigger loss than people might suspect. Buehler was huge, when it came to the field position battle. In terms of kickoffs, he was nearly automatic. USC never had to worry about the opponent starting off a drive with good field position, following a USC score. They were going to be starting from their own 20, and that was that.

He was also an above average place kicker. He wasn't automatic, especially beyond 40 yards, but he was better than most.

Replacing him and maintaining that same sort of field position advantage, that won't be easy.

So, all in all, losing their underclassman QB and eight starters on D, yeah, I don't expect them to be as good this year.

I do expect their running game to be featured more this season. They'll still do the running back-by-committee thing, but I expect Joe McKnight to have more of a consistent year. They know they'll need him to make more plays this season and as long as he can avoid the little injuries that've nagged him ever since he arrived at USC he should have a really big year. Meanwhile, I expect Stafon Johnson to be a real horse this season.

The biggest thing, however, besides the loss of Sanchez and all those starters on D, is the schedule. Unlike ND, USC's schedule will likely hand them some losses this season. Ohio St, in Columbus, early in the season, that could be a very tough win. It's too early in the year for such a young D, and a QB who will be starting his first huge game.

It'll need to be a lot like '03, when USC went into Jordan-Hare and shut out Auburn. That was Leinart's first start, and his D made life easy for him. USC's D, being so young, that doesn't bode well for either Corp or Barkley.

USC also has to go to both Oregon and Cal, and it's never a safe bet to think anyone's going to come out of those two spots with two wins. Besides, USC hasn't won in the state of Oregon for a few seasons now. Going to Oregon and winning this year, it won't be easy.

USC even has ND on the road. If ND ever wakes the fuck up, this season would involve one helluva road schedule.

I'm expecting 10-2 this season, with an outside chance of 9-3. Unless the new QB quickly becomes comfortable and the D quickly gels this might very well be the year USC's BCS bowl game streak and their Pac 10 championships streak both come to an end.

By the skin of my teeth I'll still predict USC goes 10-2 to win the Pac 10, but I won't be surprised if they pick up that third loss. I won't be surprised if Oregon breaks through...

[Mr T]

Better:
O-Line and QB more mature.
Jermaine Thomas will have a stellar season at RB
Havent lost a game yet

Worse:
Lost key defensive players
Lost the NCAAs best kicker from last year
Lost a lot of WRs due to graduation and stupidity
Schedule not very friendly
Havent won a game yet

[Vito Corleone]

Texas

Better
Almost the entire offense is back
The Texas two deep secondary has about 6 guys with real NFL ability
Linebacking unit should be one of the best in the country

Worse
Must rebuild the defense line
For first time in Mack Brown era There is no real talent at the DT spot
TE is non-existent with the injury to Blaine Irby.
running game has a lot to prove

[Van]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that unless Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy spend a lot of time hurt, Clausen isn't going to be an All-American. At least not 1st team.

Agreed. It's too crowded at the top. No room left over for Clausen.

Bradford is going to have one fuckuva tough time though, winning the Heisman again. They're just not going to let a guy win it twice in a row, not when McCoy and Gandhi are sitting there, plus whoever else pops up this season.

If Texas beats OU in the RRS it's going to come down to Gandhi vs McCoy, and goddammit, since the title game is going to be Texas vs Florida (in that instance) wait until after the title game before they vote on the damn thing.

[WolverineSteve]

Better-
QB is a guy who belongs on an CFB roster.
second year in a complex system
o-line returns everyone vs. noone last year
Scott Shafer is no longer in Ann Arbor
Stevie Brown is not playing safety anymore.
very deep and experienced at rb and wr

worse-
nothing could be worse than last year.

[Shoalzie]

Better-
QB is a guy who belongs on an CFB roster.
second year in a complex system
o-line returns everyone vs. noone last year
Scott Shafer is no longer in Ann Arbor
Stevie Brown is not playing safety anymore.
very deep and experienced at rb and wr

Ditto...I'll also add, no ACC point guards masquerading as QBs.

worse-
nothing could be worse than last year.

The Lions' season was worse...I shiver at the idea of a winless Michigan season. I hope that the worst is over with the RichRod era.


Early prediction: 7-5

[The Seer]

UCLA will be better due to being one more year removed from Duhrell.

[King Crimson]

better: D should be improved. hopefully, won't have to play the last 2/3rds of the season (including the NC game) faking it at MLB. Murray will be healthy (for a while).

worse: lose experienced but sometimes overrated OL. all my CU buds say Bradford won't be any good running for his life. they also said a year ago that Cody Hawkins was better than Bradford. Now, they'd sell their mothers into white slavery in Morocco for Landry Jones at CU*. Heck, I like Cody more than they do now.

* http://hsnewmexico.scout.com/a.z?s=402& ... id=2699454

[indyfrisco]

[defeated]

Why is your team better this year?

We are 1 more year removed from Fran.

Why is it worse?

We are still A&M in the smae division as t.u. and OU.

[/defeated]

[Terry in Crapchester]

Killian,

I agree with most everything in your post. One minor nit, however.

Weis is far from proven, but I refuse to compromise my standards, so I'm expecting 10-2.

Two possible scenarios below, which do you prefer?

1. 10-2 record. Blowout loss to USC. Blowout loss to either Fredo or Sparty, scabdick win against the other. Scabdick wins against both Michigan and Pitt.

2. 9-3 record. Narrow losses against USC, Fredo and Sparty. Convincing wins against Michigan and Pitt.

In this particular case, and especially in light of the fact that I see this team as being capable of contending for the national championship in '10, I prefer the latter scenario. I say that even though I realize that the former scenario probably means a BCS bid, and the latter scenario probably means no BCS bid (or perhaps I'm saying it because of that, see below).

One added factor is the bowl game opponent. The latter scenario probably means a Gator Bowl bid, likely against an eminently beatable team, given the fact that the ACC in general is in a bit of a down cycle. By contrast, a BCS bid means, in all likelihood, that we face a team that is better than we are. Weis hasn't yet shown any ability to make his team the giant-killer (possible exception for the USC '05 game).

Just saying, I guess, that there needs to be a qualitative analysis to ND's upcoming season as well, no matter how it turns out, especially in light of the manner in which past seasons have turned out.

[King Crimson]

[defeated]

Why is your team better this year?

We are 1 more year removed from Fran.

Why is it worse?

We are still A&M in the smae division as t.u. and OU.

[/defeated]

ESPN's top 40 players in the Big XII has exactly zero Aggies. the only other teams shut out are ISU and CU....teams at least 3 seasons away from being +.500. ATM hasn't recruited THAT poorly. show me the last time ATM didn't have a top 25 class?

it's ESPN, so it's bullshit and Texas honk Tim (i read some internet message boards and wrote 250 words about it) Griffin.

i also read that the Ags are 1-7 against Tech the last 8 years, that can't be true.

[King Crimson]

so, TiC and Killian....you think Weis gets fired if he wins 7 games? 8 games?

[Terry in Crapchester]

so, TiC and Killian....you think Weis gets fired if he wins 7 games? 8 games?

7 games? Yes, no question in my mind about it.

8 games? My take is probably, but he could possibly survive if a qualitative analysis of the season is positive (unlikely, that would mean a number of teams on the schedule exceeding expectations by a considerable margin).

[Van]

I see this team as being capable of contending for the national championship in '10

Based on what? They haven't even shown the ability to be competitive against good teams, and suddenly by next year they're a national title caliber team?

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Michigan State

Better:

-Easy schedule. No Ohio St and weak OOC slate. Michigan, Iowa, and Penn St at home.
-Will be more versatile, less predictable on offense.
-Will return experienced receivers. Way too many dropped balls last year which I think was due to young/nervous receivers.
-O line should be much improved.
-Have two very solid qb options coming into the season, Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins. Yes, I feel both of these guys can come in and play better than Brian Hoyer right now; especially with an improved O Line. It's still uncertain who will start, but I suspect they will both see playing time in '09. Nichol can get it done with his arms and his legs. He's a transfer from OU, and they don't exactly go after shabby qbs. Cousins has a very quality arm and looked very good when he got into games last year due to Hoyer's injuries/shittiness. I feel very good about the qb position.

Worse:

-No Ringer. There are four RBs vying for the #1 spot and not one guy stands out above the rest right now. Dantonio even said last year late in the season he was unsure of who's the #2 RB. Only good thing about that is it will keep all these guys hungry and motivated to compete throughout the offseason to get better. The starting RB could very well wind up being a true freshman.
-Lose a huge chunk from the secondary in Otis Wiley and Kendall Davis Clark...a secondary that wasn't all that good to begin with.

You gotta hold the whole "worse" thing with a grain of salt though because you never know who's going to step up and fill voids.

[Van]

-Easy schedule. No Ohio St and weak OOC slate. Michigan, Iowa, and Penn St at home.

That does it. I expect no less than a share of the Big 10 title from you. This is your 2002 Iowa year.

[indyfrisco]

ESPN's top 40 players in the Big XII has exactly zero Aggies. the only other teams shut out are ISU and CU....teams at least 3 seasons away from being +.500. ATM hasn't recruited THAT poorly. show me the last time ATM didn't have a top 25 class?

it's ESPN, so it's bullshit and Texas honk Tim (i read some internet message boards and wrote 250 words about it) Griffin.

i also read that the Ags are 1-7 against Tech the last 8 years, that can't be true.

I would not normally agree with what some ESPN hack has to say, but I think he is right. I know it is a cliche, but A&M's cuppboard was left truly bare.

1-7 in last 8 is right. 3-11 in last 14. We hold the all time 34-32-1. Just 14 years ago the all time record was 31-21-1.

[Terry in Crapchester]

I see this team as being capable of contending for the national championship in '10

Based on what? They haven't even shown the ability to be competitive against good teams, and suddenly by next year they're a national title caliber team?

Note that I said they're capable of contending for the national championship in 2010. Nowhere did I say that they'd win the national championship that year.

Two reasons why:

1. Talent. The two classes that will be upperclassmen that year were ranked #8 and #2, respectively, as recruiting classes. As I've said before, I take recruiting rankings with several grains of salt, but if they're accurate, there will be a lot of talent in both the senior and junior classes that year.

2. Schedule. Doesn't look demonstrably tougher next year than it is this year (two games still TBD):

2010 Football Schedule
tentative
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S04 PURDUE
S11 MICHIGAN
S18 @ Michigan St.
S25 STANFORD
O02 @ Boston College
O09 PITTSBURGH
O16 Army (Chicago)
O23 @ Navy (Baltimore)
N13 Utah
N27 @ Southern Cal
2 games TBD

I suspect that one of the TBD games will be against UConn, with just the date left to be worked out. I also suspect that we're looking to schedule our last two games for October 30 and November 6, so that we'll have a bye week before USC.

Of course, any possibility of contending for a national championship begins with a solid season this year. 7-5, 8-4, even 9-3 (unless we have some quality wins and hardluck losses) and we're probably looking at a BCS bid as a best-case scenario in '10. Hell, that could be true even with a 10-2 season, if it's something along the lines of our '06 season.

[King Crimson]

Of course, any possibility of contending for a national championship begins with a solid season this year. 7-5, 8-4, even 9-3

OK, you've kind of lost me here Terry. above you tell me that Weis is more or less fired with 7 (for sure) and maybe 8 W's. now, it's the stepping stone to a BCS/in the mix for the NC Irish team in 2010?

who's coaching ND in 2010?

[Van]

Until ND demonstrates that they can beat good teams and consistently dominate average to poor teams, no, there's no reason to think they even have the potential to play for a national title next year. The only evidence we have right now points to ND possibly being a decent team. That same evidence also points to them possibly remaining a horrible team. Nothing we've seen points to them bypassing "decent" and going straight to "national title caliber," in only one season.

If ND goes 10-2 this season, including good showings against USC, BC and Michigan St, then we can entertain talk of them having the potential to do something in 2010.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Of course, any possibility of contending for a national championship begins with a solid season this year. 7-5, 8-4, even 9-3

OK, you've kind of lost me here Terry. above you tell me that Weis is more or less fired with 7 (for sure) and maybe 8 W's. now, it's the stepping stone to a BCS/in the mix for the NC Irish team in 2010?

who's coaching ND in 2010?

No, what I said is that ND would need to win at least 9-10 games this year to have a shot at the national championship in 2010.

Edit: Where I think I confused you is when I said with anything less than that, we're looking at a BCS season as a best-case scenario in 2010. By saying that, I meant to distinguish a BCS season from a national championship contending season. There are plenty of teams that have earned BCS bids without ever seriously being in the hunt for the national championship that season.

[Van]

There are plenty of teams that have earned BCS bids without ever seriously being in the hunt for the national championship that season.

That's precisely why we need to do away with automatic bids to BCS conference champs. Just go with the top ranked teams, regardless of conference; regardless of how many teams might come out of any one conference. If the best eight teams are comprised of three SEC teams, three Big XII teams, USC and Utah, then so be it. If USC goes 9-3 and wins the Pac 10, fuck 'em, give someone else that spot.

[Terry in Crapchester]

There are plenty of teams that have earned BCS bids without ever seriously being in the hunt for the national championship that season.

That's precisely why we need to do away with automatic bids to BCS conference champs. Just go with the top ranked teams, regardless of conference; regardless of how many teams might come out of any one conference. If the best eight teams are comprised of three SEC teams, three Big XII teams, USC and Utah, then so be it. If USC goes 9-3 and wins the Pac 10, fuck 'em, give someone else that spot.

BCS as meritocracy. I don't have a problem with that.

Tell me, though, why the vitriol toward ND's automatic bid if in the Top 8? After all, there are 10 BCS bids. If ND finishes in the Top 8 (Top 10, actually), and the BCS really were a meritocracy, then ND should deserve to go.

[Van]

I don't have a problem with ND's Top 8 auto bid. I have a problem with the other avenues by which they can get in. Merely being in the Top 14 allows them the possibility, and with ND a possibility is all the national media/bowl committees require.

[buckeye_in_sc]

tOSU...

Overall - after losing a bunch of seniors, it might be hard for anyone to think this team is better but I am going to say we are better. Sure we lose Malcom, James, Beanie (jr), etc...but we have a talented, young, HUNGRY, NASTY bunch of kids...this is TP's team...

Schedule - Very good non-con...open with Navy, welcome USC to the Shoe, then Toledo...not bad...should be a nice 3 game prep for the conference schedule...the only issue I have is New Mexico State right smack dab in the middle of the conference season...oh well...

Offense - the OL will be better with subtraction by addition...we get rid of guys like Boone (over hyped), Rehring (to fat and slow) and Person (I still hate him for getting blown up by Ricky Jean Francois on the blocked Fg in the NC Game)...Boom Heron and Saine should be fine in the backfield with Jamaal Berry and Carlos Hyde coming from FLA should provide some EXCEPTIONAL running back depth. The OL gets younger and meaner with Boren locking down a Guard spot...Browing moving to his more natural position of Guard, and some very athletic Tackles. The WR's while young are FAST and talented...the QB...much improved...

Defense - the DL and the back 4 will be the strength...we lost Jenkins and Washington...but Chekwa and Amos will probably be the CB's and Coleman and Russell are Doss/Whitner clones...the Backers...while inexperienced are NASTY and FAST...hopefully Sabino and Rolle are on the field moreso than not...

Overall I think if the sweater vested midget doesn't stifle this teams enthusiam and raw emotion (not stupidity)...this team could hit 11-1 ish with another BCS berth...get by USC and there is a possibility that they could run the table...but then again with all the youth 9-3 wouldn't surprise me...

[Terry in Crapchester]

I don't have a problem with ND's Top 8 auto bid. I have a problem with the other avenues by which they can get in. Merely being in the Top 14 allows them the possibility, and with ND a possibility is all the national media/bowl committees require.

But you'd be foolish if you thought that ND was the only school that benefits from that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSStandings tOSU last year out front should have told you so. Like ND in '06, two teams ranked ahead of tOSU last year missed the BCS. The big difference was that the two teams ranked ahead of ND in '06 that missed the BCS (Wisconsin and Auburn) were prohibited, by the BCS rule that limits selection of at-large bids to no more than one per conference (it's also worth noting that Auburn leapfrogged ND in the BCS standings on the final week of the season, when both teams were idle.) Then contrast tOSU in '08. Two teams ranked ahead of tOSU last season were not taken by the BCS (Taco Tech and Boise State). The difference was, only one of those schools (Taco) was ineligible for the BCS under the BCS rules.

Not saying that ND wouldn't have been selected for the BCS, if you subbed ND into tOSU's spot in the BCS rankings that season. I am saying, though, that ND isn't the only school that benefits under those circumstances.

[Van]

Terry, others might have something similar to ND, but then, no, they don't. ND's situation is unique, and it'll work out in their favor every time. Ohio St has two things going for them: Being Ohio St, ie, a recent national title winner, a team who wins ten games every year; and Jim Delany.

Notre Dame doesn't even need any of that. ND just needs to stick their head up every so often, and they'll get picked, simply because they're ND.

[Terry in Crapchester]

They still need the ten wins. They're probably not getting a Top 14 ranking without that. They're definitely not getting a Top 14 ranking without at least nine wins.

[Danimal]

Better:
We are in the second year under this staff. This should make a considerable difference on D where we should be more fundamentally sound and have way fewer missed assignments.
We'll be in the second year under our new S&C, we were considerable better 4th quarter team in '09 and should see more improvement in '10
We redshirted several guys that could've been playing in '08. They will have an impact, won't have to piece together D's with inexperienced walk-ons. We'll be loaded at TE with the addition of Cotton and Reed.

Worse:
Breaking-in a new qb, that is always a wildcard.
Lack of proven production at wr, ability-wise we certainly won't be down but we have no "go to" guys at this point.

[Vito Corleone]

No time for details.

If the rebuilt offensive line is above average, could be a very good offense. I feel like Greg McElroy will be a superior QB to John Parker Wilson. Deep in running backs and wideouts. Maze has looked great and, of course, there's Julio Jones.

The defense should be outstanding. Depth and quality everywhere. Still a young defense, for the most part. Heh heh. Good for a while. Fear the Tide. All of you.

Weak schedule, too.

Rubbing hands together and wickedly grinning.

I consider Alabama to be my favorite to come out of the SEC, I don't see Florida doing it simply because they are in everyone elses cross hairs and Ole Miss is still Ole Miss no matter who their QB is.

[Van]

Vito, look at Florida's schedule. Look at it, closely. Next, take a look at who they have coming back. I'll help you out here: Everyone on D, and everyone but Percy Harvin on O.

Now, tell me who is going to stop them, in the SEC? Bama, with a rookie QB? LSU, with a rookie QB?

Florida is about as much of a mortal lock as we'll ever see in the SEC. They're every bit as much of a lock as USC has often been in the Pac 10, in recent years.

[Harvdog]

on a side note....There is a special at LJS in Lubbock