ESPN's 2011 Playoff Predictor

[Joe in PB]

From ESPN Insider, read em' & weep:

Starting this week we'll apply proprietary efficiency statistics to project the rest of the season in order to give you a highly accurate playoffs projection. We won't get out the spreadsheets, but suffice to say the algorithms factor in everything from weather to injuries to overall trends. Of course, all of this is still highly volatile, due to the fact we're not halfway through the season, but the model can get us close. So check back each week as the numbers continue to paint a clearer bracket portrait.

AFC:

1. New England Patriots (14-2)
The Patriots have the most efficient offense in the league, but people often forget about their success running the ball. New England ranks second in the AFC in defense-adjusted rushing efficiency, behind only Fred Jackson and the Bills.
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
The ageless Ravens defense ranks No. 1 in every defensive efficiency category, limiting opponents to 16 points less than a league-average defense per game. Now if only the offense could help out …
3. Houston Texans (12-4)
After an abysmal 2010 (ranking dead last), the Texans' pass defense has turned it around, ranking fifth this year.
4. San Diego Chargers (8-8)
While the Chargers are 4-2, they have been mediocre against bad teams. As a result, their opponent-adjusted numbers are average or below average in every category except pass defense, where they rank just 16th.
5. Buffalo Bills (12-4)
Jackson leads the AFC's most efficient running game, but the Bills also rank second in the AFC in pass efficiency, behind Tom Brady and crew.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
The Steelers have won three straight after a bumpy start, but their run defense has slipped precipitously due to injuries. That being said, they've made up for it with a pass defense among the NFL's best.

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (15-1)
Behind Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are dominating through the air … and winning every game. Green Bay leads the league in defense-adjusted passing efficiency, adding more than 11 points per game above league average on passing plays.
2. San Francisco 49ers (14-2)
The 49ers are winning by avoiding mistakes on offense and dominating on defense. San Fran also ranks fifth in overall defensive efficiency. Combine that with an extremely soft schedule and you've got a playoff-bound trifecta.
3. New Orleans Saints (13-3)
The Saints' run game is often overshadowed by the brilliance of Drew Brees. After adjusting for strength of opponents, the Saints actually have the fourth most productive running game in the NFL.
4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Even with DeMarco Murray's explosion in Week 7, Dallas ranks just 31st overall in run efficiency.
5. Detroit Lions (11-5)
Out of all the teams with above league-average passing numbers, Detroit throws the ball more than any other team with a 1.8 pass-run ratio.
6. Chicago Bears (10-6)
The Bears are winning almost entirely because of their defense -- only Baltimore has a better run D. Chicago has held opponents to 18 points less than a league-average run defense, after adjusting for strength of schedule.
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AFC: LAST TWO OUT
Tennessee Titans (9-7, 40.9 percent playoff odds)
The Titans have lost two straight and are quickly falling out of contention. Thanks to a paper-soft schedule however, they may have a chance to overtake Houston for the AFC South.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-7, 26.2 percent playoff odds)
The Bengals rank above average in every defensive efficiency category, including eighth in per play pass defense. Unfortunately, the offense, led by rookie Andy Dalton, is subpar in every category. It may all come together, but odds are against this year.
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NFC: LAST TWO OUT
Atlanta Falcons (8-8, 22.7 percent playoff odds)
Even without Matt Ryan's injury situation, the Falcons are too inconsistent right now on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs. They are trending upward, however.
New York Giants (7-9, 38.4 percent playoff odds)
There is super advanced analysis needed here: you can't lose to Seattle at home and call yourself a contender. That said, the bigger issue is an absolute gauntlet of a schedule the Giants will face down the stretch, significantly limiting their odds even if they can kick inconsistency issues.
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AFC REMAINING TEAMS
Oakland Raiders (7-9, 44.4 percent)
New York Jets (8-8, 23.9)
Kansas City Chiefs (7-9, 12.0)
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 10.6)
Denver Broncos (4-12, 8.7)
Cleveland Browns (5-11, 6.1)
Indianapolis Colts (1-15, 2.7)
Miami Dolphins (2-14, 1.0)

NFC REMAINING TEAMS
Philadelphia Eagles (7-9, 25.1 percent)
Washington Redskins (5-11, 19.8%)
Carolina Panthers (7-9, 11.7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10, 10.0)
Seattle Seahawks (6-10, 7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-12, 4.7)
St. Louis Rams (1-15, 2.1)
Minnesota Vikings (5-11, 0.8%)

[Joe in PB]

Well they do have the Bolts pegged right, they look like an 8-8 team that can't impose their will on many teams. Soft. Whether or not they will win the craptastic AFC West in still up in the air IMO, and appears to be in the projection too, (KC & Oak 7-9). I'm surprised by Buffalo's projected 12-4 record, I see them closer to 8-8 or 9-7. I'm not surprised to see Dallas in the mix, they're the NFC East team that has impressed me the most, despite some blown games. Three teams from the NFC North......

Indy (1-15) wins the SUCK for Luck sweepstakes, I think St Louis will win more than one game.

Of course this will be updated as the season goes on, but it starts to shed light on the NFL horizon, and that I find interesting.

[poptart]

8-8 is going to win the AFC West, huh?

I'm thinking it'll take better than that.


I balked at Houston's 12-4, because it means their going 8-1 the rest of the way.
Then I looked at their schedule (not murderer's row) and thought, "Hmmmm... well, maybe."
They do D-up pretty well, and they can run the ball a bit.

[Joe in PB]

8-8 is going to win the AFC West, huh?

I'm thinking it'll take better than that.

I'm not feelin' San Diego having a better record than that, maybe the Griefs or Duhs can get there. Although Palmer basically has been saying this week that Hue Jackson threw him under the bus vs the Griefs. It'll be interesting to see if Palmer can pick up where Campbell left off, if not, I don't see things so rosy in Oakland.

[Go Coogs']

8-8 is going to win the AFC West, huh?

I'm thinking it'll take better than that.


I balked at Houston's 12-4, because it means their going 8-1 the rest of the way.
Then I looked at their schedule (not murderer's row) and thought, "Hmmmm... well, maybe."
They do D-up pretty well, and they can run the ball a bit.

I thought that too, but they will be favored in every game except maybe Tampa Bay. They'll finish 11-5 or 10-6.

Pops, you've got be scared about Oakland's offense turning out to be a dud. I thought the Raiders gave up WAY too much for Palmer b/c he wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard the last two seasons. Personally, I think he's done as a good QB.

[poptart]

Palmer threw for 4,000 yds (3,970) and 26TDs last season.
Sort of looks like he might still be able to play a bit.

I'm concerned because McFadden has hurt his foot.
No structural damage - but not sure at this point if he'll miss games going forward.
Not having him would be a blow to the offense.[/Marcus]

You generally don't just plug a QB (who hasn't been with your team) in and get the same results you got with the starter.
That said, Oakland DOES have a bye week this week - and Palmer has more skills than Campbell.

Personally, I think it'll be a bumpy ride offensively for Oakland for a while.
It's going to be interesting to watch how it plays out.

[mvscal]

Palmer threw for 4,000 yds (3,970) and 26TDs last season.

On a 4-12 team playing catch up just about every week. His 20 picks and puny yards per attempt confirms the desperation and the underneath BS that defenses were allowing while sitting on a lead.

His arm didn't look great to me last week. It didn't expect him to do anything in that situation, but I didn't see much zip on the ball. Did you?

[Joe in PB]

I'm wondering what will happen to the Chargers projected record & playoff chances if they lose this week in KC? San Diego might be projected for 7-9 by next Tuesday.

[poptart]

I didn't notice an arm strength issue in that appearance, mvscal.


http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2011/10/ ... on-palmer/

Q: Tell us your thoughts on Carson Palmer.

COSELL: I’ve seen every single throw he’s made in his NFL career. Here’s the way I would describe it. From 2005-2007 he was the third best quarterback in football behind Manning Brady, Brady Manning, whatever your choice may be. I thought after his injury that he lost some arm strength, and I thought it was evident last year in particular. I don’t think the ball came out quite the same way, but that’s a relative term. It’s not as if he can’t throw. I think this is a huge upgrade. I would have made the trade in a heartbeat. I think Palmer brings a presence to an offense. He’s a big, physical pocket quarterback, and I think that he immediately makes you more competitive in the pass game. Whether he’s the player we was from 2005-2007, my answer to that would probably be no but like I said, he was the third best quarterback in football in those years. Let’s say he’s the twelfth best quarterback in football, that’s still pretty good. I’m just throwing that out. I haven’t made a list.

Q: Could Carson Palmer regain some of that arm strength?

COSELL: I don’t know if he could totally regain the strength, but he was always a very good timing and anticipation passer, so that part of his game already existed. What he had in his prime was he was something that’s pretty rare, he was a power thrower. Big arm, great velocity. He was very, very accurate. I don’t know if we’ll see that exact guy anymore, but like I said, he had other attributes – timing, anticipation, he’s firm in the pocket. He’s strong. I know there’s been a lot of talk of, “Did they give up too much?” I would have made the trade.

Q: Palmer had knee surgery, not elbow surgery. He almost had Tommy John surgery…

COSELL: Right, and he chose not to. I don’t know anything about the surgery, so I couldn’t begin to tell you what the result would have been had he chose to have it, but I can tell you for a fact, and it’s on film this is not speculation, he did lose some arm strength.

Q: What about Palmer as a leader?

COSELL: It’s funny you say that, because I had a really great opportunity when Carson Palmer came out of USC. He came to NFL films and spent an entire day with myself and Ron Jaworski. So, I got to know Carson, and I think he’s an absolutely terrific guy. He’s not a yeller and a screamer leader like that, but I think he’s one of those quiet leaders by example who shows up to work every day as a pro’s pro. Hue Jackson was in Cincinnati from 2004-2006 in Carson’s formative years and he knows what kind of player he is. He has a presence about him. You don’t have to yell and scream to be a leader. Palmer has a presence about him, and just reading the quotes by Al Saunders, who I also know extremely well, it’s evident that when he stepped on the field, that presence was there.

-------------

Charley Casserly also likes the deal and thinks highly of Palmer at this point.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2011 ... both-sides

On Twitter, after the trade was made, Casserly tweeted that he had watched Palmer last season and that he didn't notice any arm strength issue.
Thought he was zippin' it pretty good.



It's up to Palmer and the Raiders now.

Perform and make you look like a fool, or fail and make you look like you knew what you were talking about.

I just threw Cosell and Casserly out here as examples.
There are plenty of other people who watch the league who also don't think Palmer has an arm strength issue.

[mvscal]

Is the 12th best QB in the league worth a first and second round pick? Personally, I don't think his arm is what it was before he ripped up his elbow. The team spent an awful lot on damaged goods, IMO.

Who knows? I thought Drew Brees was destined for journeyman backup status after his shoulder injury. It didn't really turn out to be the case.

[Shoalzie]

If the Lions don't win in Denver tomorrow, don't consider them for the playoffs because they've got 4 or 5 more losses coming in the second half of the season. 11-5 is too generous of a record...I'm think 8 or 9 wins max. They can't run nor stop the run. Stafford will need the bye to get healed up and they need Best back soon as well. I'll admit, my team is a fraud dressed a 5-2 team. They'll get exposed in the second half when the games matter. They're still a year away from contending.