AFC thoughts at the 1/4 season point

[poptart]

Because I follow the AFC closer than the NFC.

Best teams:
1) Baltimore - also the best built to win in December and January
2) New England - wicked good on offense
3) Houston - solid running game and good on both sides of the ball

Likely Division Winners:
- New England
- Baltimore
- Houston
- San Diego - Rivers always gives this team a chance to score pts

Battling for Playoffs:
- Buffalo - can score in flurries, but is the defense really up to it?
- NY Jets - physical, and will be heard from before it's over
- Cincinnati - underrated defense - needs better QBing
- Pittsburgh - Super Bowl losing team curse has set in
- Tennessee - physical, also, and getting solid QBing from Hasselbeck
- Oakland - very good running game and scoring ability - but defense??

Also-rans:
- Miami
- Cleveland
- Jacksonville
- Indianapolis
- Denver
- Kansas City

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

2) New England - wicked good on offense

And quite possibly, the worst defense in the history of the NFL. Losing their only respectable player on D, Mayo, for the next 4-6 weeks won't help either. I'll continue to take the over every damned week. I think I'd put them 4th behind Balt, Hou, and Tenn right about now.

Speaking of Tenn... I really think the 8 pts is the worst line ever. Harrison is not playing... Ben may not play, and at best, will be limping severely. And they have a shitload of other injury related question marks for week 5:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/pit/report

Pitt's D looks old and confused at times and their O-Line sucks ass. I think they lose this game. Nevermind -8.

[poptart]

Do you want me to let you bet the PIT/TEN game three times - and consider those your "three best bets" for this week?



:wink:

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

Most books that are even offering that game (many have it "off") are at Pitt -3.5... that opening line had to have been a mistake.

[poptart]

It wasn't a mistake.
When you called it to my attention, I checked a few different betting sites and they all had something similar: PIT -8, PIT -7.5, etc.

When we play the game with a non-moving line (posted by me on Tuesday morning), this will happen sometimes.

If you like the line, just play it - which you have.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

I believe you had the opening line correct, pops. When I said mistake, I meant whatever moron set the opening line made a mistake.

[ChargerMike]

2) New England - wicked good on offense

And quite possibly, the worst defense in the history of the NFL. Losing their only respectable player on D, Mayo, for the next 4-6 weeks won't help either. I'll continue to take the over every damned week. I think I'd put them 4th behind Balt, Hou, and Tenn right about now.

Speaking of Tenn... I really think the 8 pts is the worst line ever. Harrison is not playing... Ben may not play, and at best, will be limping severely. And they have a shitload of other injury related question marks for week 5:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/pit/report

Pitt's D looks old and confused at times and their O-Line sucks ass. I think they lose this game. Nevermind -8.

And quite possibly, the worst defense in the history of the NFL


...did ya miss the Raiduhs giving up right at 6 yards a crack on the ground?

[mvscal]

The Shittsburg Squealers are done. They won't even be in the running. Honestly, they'll be lucky to finish above .500.

[War Wagon]

Baltimore #1?

'tart, I guess you missed the game two weeks ago when Tennessee handed the Ravens their ass, 31-16 I believe.

Pretty impressive what this bunch has done so far with Hasseback at the helm, of which absolutely nobody saw this coming, and still don't, apparently.

[poptart]

You could make a case for Tennessee being best, I agree.
Defensively, they're very good.

They lost to Jacksonville, however, and they only beat Dungver (at home) by 3.

The Crows have faced a tougher schedule.

did ya miss the Raiduhs giving up right at 6 yards a crack on the ground

It's a particularly horrendous number at this point, but Oakland getting gashed v. the run is pretty much a yearly deal.
Goes without saying that the Raiders will get torn up that way.

Hue Jackson made two things points of emphasis.

1. Stop the run
2. Control penalties

Well, we're dead last in yds-per-carry allowed and we're dead last in penalties.

That's strike two, Hue. :)


When looking at the money Oakland has invested on the defensive side of the ball, much better should be expected.

S. Routt
R. Seymour
T. Kelly
K. Wimbley
M. Huff
R. McClain
L. Houston

Shit, these 7 guys are ALL making very good money.

Where's the performance?


A lot of us cringed when last year's D-Coordinator J. Marshall resigned and C. Bresnahan was brought back to coach the defense, because he pretty well SUCKED in his previous stint.

Our concern was well founded.

Last year Oakland was near the very top of the league in sacks, they were 11th in yds allowed, and they were 20th in pts allowed.

You can WIN with those defensive numbers.

You can't WIN with what we have going on this year.
Last v. the run, 29th in overall yds allowed, and 30th in pts allowed.

In my opinion, that sucked.


I had hopes that Oakland would contend for the West this year, but if the defense doesn't get it's shit somewhat together, 8-8 will be the very best we can hope for.


A. Foster and the Houston running game this Sunday. :?

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

I agree with this list for the most part. how about your NFC thoughts?

[poptart]

You (or someone else) can do the NFC.
I'll be glad to comment.

I follow the AFC more closely.

[mvscal]

NFC?

Best teams:

1. Green Bay - most dangerous team in the league. No glaring weakness and Rodgers is off the hook.
2. New Orleans - Drew Brees and some solid skill player on O. Defense is OK at best.
3. Lions - Can play D and Stafford to Johnson is pretty unstoppable.

Likely division winners:

1. Green Bay
2. New York (more consistent QB play than Washington)
3. New Orleans
4. San Francisco (surprisingly gutty team)

In the hunt:

Detroit - should take the 5 seed.
Tampa - Good young team. Could make a run
DC- Good Rex v Bad Rex. Who knows who'll come out on top.
Atlanta - Better fix that O line. They're fading fast but not quite gone and have some good players.


Also rans:

Dallas - Gutless fuck ups. Nobody does less with more than Tony Homo. They will choke again.
Philly - BWHAHAHAHA!!! Nobody has ever won jack shit with a bunch of flashy free agents.
Carolina- Not this year.
Chicago - Lovie Smith is a fucktard and will be fired.
Minny - Jesus farking Keerist. Just awful. Guess it wan't all on Bert Farvruh.
St. Louis - Big step back this year. Not enough skill players on offense.
Seattle - Not really sure what the thinking is behind this abortion of a team. They just suck.
Arizona - Could possibly make a late push, but I doubt it. They're the Cardinals.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

...did ya miss the Raiduhs giving up right at 6 yards a crack on the ground?

No team in the history of the league has given up more yards in their first 4 games than New England in 2011.

This defense is historically bad.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

'tart, I guess you missed the game two weeks ago when Tennessee handed the Ravens their ass, 31-16 I believe.

26-13.... and a letdown after beating the shit out of the Steelers the week before was not unexpected. It happens a lot after big rivalry games, especially on the road.

I still think Balt is the better team.

[Felix]

Also-rans:
- Denver

that's giving them more credit than they deserve

I'm glad to see Fox has brought his particular of "it's so boring I want to stab myself in the eyes with an icepick" brand of football to mile high....

[mvscal]

Also-rans:
- Denver

that's giving them more credit than they deserve

I'm glad to see Fox has brought his particular of "it's so boring I want to stab myself in the eyes with an icepick" brand of football to mile high....

At least you've got Von Miller. So the glass is either 90% empty or 10% full depending on your personal perspective.

[poptart]

Fox came into a kitchen where the cupboard is pretty bare.

Mule fan is among THE whiniest in all of sport.

All bucktooth losers should be scrubbed from the planet.

[R-Jack]

Mule fan is among THE whiniest in all of sport.

It's pretty telling that Feelsdix is the most tolerable Donkey fan I have encountered in any medium, and he trolls as a woman on the internet.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

Also rans:

Dallas - Gutless fuck ups. Nobody does less with more than Tony Homo. They will choke again.

Like he choked vs. Frisco and Washington? Giants lost today to Seattle. Dallas is going to win the NFC East because they are better than the rest of the division which is kicking its own ass lately. Plus the Cowboys have the easier second half schedule than anyone in the division.

[Screw_Michigan]

If only the Skins could have won today. Eagles get man-raped, Big Blow gets fucked at home, Philles get raped on Friday. What a great fucking sprots day.

[Felix]

It's pretty telling that Feelsdix is the most tolerable Donkey fan I have encountered in any medium

thanks I think....

[poptart]

Thoughts at the halfway point:

Best teams:
1) Pittsbugh - not totally sold on them, but they have the best record and just knocked off NE
2) New England - also not sold on them, but still scary on offense in a weak(er) AFC
3) Houston - same as at the 1/4 point - solid running game and good on both sides of the ball

Likely division winners:
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
- San Diego - sort of by default

Battling for playoffs:
- Buffalo - might overtake NE?
- Cincinnati - strong defense - if the QBing holds up, they can make a serious playoff push
- Baltimore - defense still very scary
- NY Jets - struggling running game, struggling offense
- Tennessee - the hammering Houston put on them raised an eyebrow, running game MIA
- Oakland - serious Palmer question mark hanging over them
- Kansas City - can a decent defense carry them through a tough schedule?

Also-rans:
- Miami
- Cleveland
- Jacksonville
- Indianapolis
- Denver

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

2) New England - also not sold on them, but still scary on offense in a weak(er) AFC

Worst defense ever. They have drafted a shitload of corners the last few years and most of them aren't even on the team anymore. They have also traded for corners/safeties and ended up cutting them. Interesting articles that rakes Belichick (the GM) over the coals:

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/p ... ar/?page=1

PITTSBURGH - The Patriots are going to the playoffs. They will win at least 12 games and have a bye in the first round. They might win once to get to the AFC Championship game. That would be a success to some people. But unless they get a lot better on defense, that will be the end of it.

All matchupsThe Patriots have won and will win a lot of games, and that is a credit to coach Bill Belichick. But against teams with a certain formula, they can’t compete. Not this year. Not with this team.

Belichick the general manager has let down Belichick the coach.

The Patriots simply don’t have enough talent to beat the elite teams in this league. Lucky for the Patriots, there are only a few of those - and most don’t reside in the AFC.

We saw one of them yesterday, as the Steelers ripped through the Patriots’ defense on their way to a 25-17 victory at Heinz Field that might as well have been 45-17.

The Steelers have an elite quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. He has maturing and multiple offensive weapons. And the Steelers have an offensive coordinator in Bruce Arians who isn’t afraid to press the issue against the Patriots.

There’s only one other team in the AFC, the Texans, that has a chance of executing offensively like that against the Patriots. The Chargers, Jets, and Ravens all have issues that will undo them. In the NFC, the Packers, Saints, Eagles, and Lions have the right formula to take down the Patriots.

And New England will beat up on all the other teams. It has Tom Brady, and playing soft against the pass but tighter in the red zone will be good enough. But against the top teams? The Patriots just won’t be able to get it done.

Look at what they put on the field defensively. Belichick is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. That’s because the talent is lacking. Right now, the Patriots have three defensive players considered good to elite: tackle Vince Wilfork, linebacker Jerod Mayo (who has been average in the new scheme), and safety Patrick Chung (who has been marginalized by his weak supporting cast in the secondary).

Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Ty Law, Asante Samuel, and Rodney Harrison aren’t around anymore. The Patriots have four defensive starters who were drafted in the first two rounds: Wilfork, Mayo, Chung, and Devin McCourty. The rest of the players are castoffs and aren’t effective, especially in the secondary.

Kyle Arrington would be a nickel back in most places. With Ras-I Dowling on injured reserve - after injury-plagued high school and college careers - Arrington is the best the Patriots have. McCourty has lost his confidence, but at least he has hope and some success. Antwaun Molden, Phillip Adams, Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown, and James Ihedigbo? They’re not good enough, and other teams know it.

“It was leaking a little in the back end so they were giving us a lot more opportunities to do a lot of different things, and I think we took advantage of it,’’ said Steelers receiver Antonio Brown.

The Patriots have no good young pass rushers, which hit home hard when Jermaine Cunningham, a second-round pick last year, was a healthy scratch. You can only get so much out of Andre Carter, Shaun Ellis, Mark Anderson, and Albert Haynesworth.

The Patriots would prefer to rush four players, but they can’t get home or the teams are simply releasing the ball too quickly. Because the Patriots aren’t good enough in the back, they’re playing mostly zone. Zone only works if you get pressure. The Patriots tried blitzing the Steelers, but they don’t have any good pass rushers at linebacker.

Belichick is about out of moves, and he has only himself to blame for the lack of success in the draft. Where’s the hope for the future with this defense?

Steelers receiver Jerricho Cotchery saw a lot of the Patriots defense during seven seasons with the Jets. He knows these Patriots are scuffling.

“When the ball is being moved up and down the field like that, it’s all about communication,’’ he said. “They have a bunch of young guys in there. Some new pieces. Any time you have young guys in there, the communication isn’t going to be where it needs to be.

“With the weapons that we have, we knew we would have some opportunities. You just don’t have enough defensive backs to cover all of the weapons that we have. It’s going to be like that for any team, but more so against them. They released Leigh Bodden and the rookie that they drafted [Dowling], he’s on injured reserve. There aren’t many guys that you can put out there. That was our plan, to come out and throw the ball. And we did that extremely well.’’

The Patriots have allowed six of the seven quarterbacks they’ve faced throw for more than 300 yards. Roethlisberger had 365 and he was barely hurried. He was sacked five times, but almost all of them were coverage sacks when he decided to eat the ball.

“I think we’ve shown that we have a lot of weapons,’’ Cotchery said. “You’d want to have everyone available for this game. Once you see [Bodden] get released and you see them put a guy on IR, you’re like, ‘OK, what else is left?’ You know? Yes, I was definitely surprised to see him released. Any time you have a veteran presence on your team, it hurts the young guys.’’

But Cotchery also said that because Belichick is the coach, the Patriots still have a chance.

“The thing is about Belichick, I watched them over a number of years, it’s always a building process,’’ Cotchery said. “So later in the year last year, those guys dominated defensively. I felt like they were really beating up some teams. So he’s always building, he always has a plan. He doesn’t do things that are just knee-jerk reactions or anything of that nature. He has a plan, I know he has a plan. I know the guys on the team know he has a plan. So, I think they’ll get better.

“He’s a brilliant mind. You have to give him credit for that.’’

Belichick the coach is brilliant. But Belichick the general manager has left himself short on talent against the best teams. The Patriots will win a lot more games. But they’re not going to win the important ones. Not until the talent gets better.

That won’t happen this year.