BCS Rankings - November 21

[PSUFAN]

http://www.bcsfootball.org/files/long-2005-6.pdf

1. USC
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. LSU
5. Virginia Tech
6. Ohio State
7. Oregon
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami (FL)
10. Auburn
11. West Virginia
12. UCLA
13. TCU
14. Alabama
15. Georgia
16. Texas Tech
17. Wisconsin
18. Boston College
19. Fresno State
20. Louisville
21. Georgia Tech
22. Michigan
23. Florida
24. Florida State
25. Northwestern

Oregon's high ranking surprises me.

[Van]

They're a one loss team whose only loss came at the hands of the BCS's #1 team so they gotta be ranked pretty highly at this point in the season...

In fact, looking at their loss it could easily be argued that they should be ranked higher.

LSU was basically beaten by both ASU and Auburn plus they scheduled North Texas and Appalachian State while (supposedly) begging off on scheduling Fresno State. Their one loss was at home to a dogshit Tennessee team.

It could be argued that Oregon should be ranked ahead of them.

Ohio State has two losses (one of which was pretty convincing, to Penn State) and their only truly significant win of the year came against a four loss Michigan team so it could easily be argued that Oregon should be ranked ahead of them.

Va Tech hadn't beaten anybody of note and then they got thoroughly destroyed at home by a two loss Miami team.

So, yeah, Oregon could make an argument for #4, and maybe even #3 since Penn State's loss was to a four loss Michigan team while Oregon's lone loss was to a still undefeated two time defending national champion and current #1...

[Mikey]

They average #6 in the computer rankings, #8 in the human polls.
#7 seems like about the right place.

[JayDuck]

I'm hearing a lot of pub for a possible PSU matchup in the Fiesta Bowl.

Basically, if Texas goes to the Title game, Fiesta Bowl gets 1st pick.

If they take Penn State, Orange would likely take Notre Dame.

The Fiesta Bowl would then almost certainly take Oregon as the best other choice would be Ohio State.

Also hearing the Fiesta Bowl may take us over Ohio State, if they get Notre Dame so as to not match up two 2 loss teams. Also, the fact that Ohio State has played in the Fiesta Bowl 3 out of the last 4 years may hurt their chances.

I've been fairly quiet about our BCS chances this year as I didn't want to jinx anything after Clemens went down. But Dennis Dixon has finally taken control of the QB position and we look just about as good as before Clemens broke his ankle.

I think Ohio State has a good claim for a BCS bid with 2 losses, to Top-5 teams.

I do believe our claim is a bit stronger with the only loss coming at the hands of USC. In spite of our 2nd half meltdown in that game, there will be ZERO other 1 loss teams avaliable as an At-Large selection. And ours came at the hands of the 2 time defending national champs, liekly to be 3 time champs.

I understand that the BCS is all about the Benjamins and, as a fan, I would actually be OK with going bowling in San Diego this year, beating up a weak Big-12 team and finishing in the Top-5/Top-10.

BUT, it also would be a complete disservice to the kids that played their hearts out this season and have earned themselves a shot at the BCS more so than a team like Notre Dame that lost to a 5-6 Michigan State team.

I'm hoping for a BCS bid and I think we have a decent shot at it. But, like I said, I'm happy in either Tempe or San Diego, myself. I will feel horrible for our kids if they get passed over for a team that lost more games to weaker teams.

[Killian]

If Notre Dame beats Stanford next week, the Fiesta will take them with their first pick.

[Shawn Marion]

I don't know what kind of fan base Oregon has in Arizona, but they have already played in that twice this year. That could hurt their chances of getting picked up.

I don't really think the BCS cares about 1 or 2 loss teams, it is all about the cash. ND and OSU both travel well and are tied 2-2 all time (built in storyline). Also, the Fiesta was impressed with OSU fans enough after their national title to sign bring them back the very next year.

[buckeye_in_sc]

plus the overall margin of tOSU's TWO losses equated to the margin in Oregon's one loss...not that it means much but Oregon struggled down the stretch with Arizona, WSU, Cal and the like...not saying Oregon isn't deserving...

it all depends on the Fiesta and Orange...if Fiesta takes ND first then the Orange can take PSU oppo either a combo of Miami/FSU/Va Tech I believe...in that case then the Fiesta might take Oregon...I do not believe a game East of the Miss will take Oregon...IMHO...

i just think there are two good storylines with either tOSU vs ND or PSU vs ND...although with PSU vs ND what would Beano do (WWBD)???

[JayDuck]

If Notre Dame beats Stanford next week, the Fiesta will take them with their first pick.

I wouldn't exactly count that a done deal. Jo Pa is a big story this year.

[Jimmy Medalions]

The Fiesta Bowl would then almost certainly take Oregon as the best other choice would be Ohio State.

I don't agree. tOSU is viewed as a better traveling team. Thus, from an economics perspective, they'd take tOSU over Oregon.

Nothing against Oregon.

[Jimmy Medalions]

When Notre Dame beats Stanford next week, the Fiesta will take them with their first pick.

ftfy

[buckeye_in_sc]

well tOSU vs ND in the Fiesta would give SC/Texas a run in the rating department (homer alert)...


but then again PSU vs ND would be epoch as well...just wishing tOSU had a shot at SC...oh well going out on a 6 game winning streak and beating your rival kind of helps soothe the wounds of being 10 FUCKING POINTS away...UGHGHGHGHGHG...

anyway carry on...

[JayDuck]

The Fiesta Bowl would then almost certainly take Oregon as the best other choice would be Ohio State.

I don't agree. tOSU is viewed as a better traveling team. Thus, from an economics perspective, they'd take tOSU over Oregon.

Nothing against Oregon.

They wouldn't take Ohio State to rematch Penn State

[Killian]

When Notre Dame beats Stanford next week, the Fiesta will take them with their first pick.

ftfy

After watching them come out kinda flat against SU, knowing that the oline is tired (no depth), and considering Walt ate this defense up last year, I'm not counting it as a done deal just yet. I'll feel better as the week goes on, and I'm sure ND will win, but not giving off that kind of anti-karma just yet.

Jay, PSU has a huge history with the Orange Bowl. ND will be selected by the Fiesta, then the Orange has to take a confrence winner. PSU fits that bill. The Fiesta will also end up with the second at-large pick. I'm very optimistic that ND will be selected by the Fiesta.

[PSUFAN]

Ohio State has two losses (one of which was pretty convincing, to Penn State)

I've got the game, I could mail you a copy of it. If I did so and you were to watch it, you'd see a game that was as even as could be. Basically, one int and one big sack separated the teams.

I'm not sure what you call "convincing"...but the PSU/OSU game was very close. As I've said, OSU is a couple plays away from being defeated this year - PSU is one second away from it. I see both teams as BCS-worthy, myself.

[JayDuck]

Jay, PSU has a huge history with the Orange Bowl. ND will be selected by the Fiesta, then the Orange has to take a confrence winner. PSU fits that bill. The Fiesta will also end up with the second at-large pick. I'm very optimistic that ND will be selected by the Fiesta.

Actually, the way I understand it, if the Fiesta takes Notre Dame, there is a good likeliehood that they get stuck with West Virginia as the opponent..

Penn State v. Oregon or Notre Dame v. West Virginia?

[stuckinia]

LSU would probably get stuck playing WVA.

[Terry in Crapchester]

I'm hearing a lot of pub for a possible PSU matchup in the Fiesta Bowl.

Basically, if Texas goes to the Title game, Fiesta Bowl gets 1st pick.

If they take Penn State, Orange would likely take Notre Dame.

The Fiesta Bowl would then almost certainly take Oregon as the best other choice would be Ohio State.

Also hearing the Fiesta Bowl may take us over Ohio State, if they get Notre Dame so as to not match up two 2 loss teams. Also, the fact that Ohio State has played in the Fiesta Bowl 3 out of the last 4 years may hurt their chances.

I've been fairly quiet about our BCS chances this year as I didn't want to jinx anything after Clemens went down. But Dennis Dixon has finally taken control of the QB position and we look just about as good as before Clemens broke his ankle.

I think Ohio State has a good claim for a BCS bid with 2 losses, to Top-5 teams.

I do believe our claim is a bit stronger with the only loss coming at the hands of USC. In spite of our 2nd half meltdown in that game, there will be ZERO other 1 loss teams avaliable as an At-Large selection. And ours came at the hands of the 2 time defending national champs, liekly to be 3 time champs.

I understand that the BCS is all about the Benjamins and, as a fan, I would actually be OK with going bowling in San Diego this year, beating up a weak Big-12 team and finishing in the Top-5/Top-10.

BUT, it also would be a complete disservice to the kids that played their hearts out this season and have earned themselves a shot at the BCS more so than a team like Notre Dame that lost to a 5-6 Michigan State team.

I'm hoping for a BCS bid and I think we have a decent shot at it. But, like I said, I'm happy in either Tempe or San Diego, myself. I will feel horrible for our kids if they get passed over for a team that lost more games to weaker teams.

Two points on that:

1. I could be wrong about this, but my understanding is that if the Rose Bowl is USC-Texas, the Fiesta Bowl would get the first two picks. In years where the Rose Bowl hosts the national championship game, the Pac-10 champ is locked into the Fiesta Bowl if not playing for the national championship.

2. As for Oregon going over ND, yes, ND did lose to a Michigan State team that finished 5-6. But that team was playing much better early on -- it seemed like the bottom fell out of their season when tOSU blocked that FG at the end of the first half and returned it for a TD. It was all downhill for Michigan State after that. And plays like that sometimes turn around a team's entire fortunes for a season -- they shouldn't, but you can't deny that it happens. In any event, Oregon lost to USC by 32 points. That's the same USC team that only beat ND by 3 points and whom ND had a very real shot at beating until the very end of the game. The difference in play between those games (the only common opponent on their schedules thus far, with ND still to play Stanford) makes the extra ND loss a wash, imho, as far as BCS bids are concerned.

Not disputing anything Van said about Oregon, but I do question why Oregon would leapfrog ND on the basis of last week's games, when ND previously had been ahead of Oregon. I'm not quite ready to put my tinfoil hat on just yet, but it almost seems like someone wants to keep ND out of the Top Six to avoid the sort of controversy that would entail. Of course, tOSU, and for that matter, Oregon, are also close to the Top Four, and either of those teams would get an at-large bid automatically in that event.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Jay, PSU has a huge history with the Orange Bowl. ND will be selected by the Fiesta, then the Orange has to take a confrence winner. PSU fits that bill. The Fiesta will also end up with the second at-large pick. I'm very optimistic that ND will be selected by the Fiesta.

Actually, the way I understand it, if the Fiesta takes Notre Dame, there is a good likeliehood that they get stuck with West Virginia as the opponent..

Penn State v. Oregon or Notre Dame v. West Virginia?

Like I said in my previous post, I think the order this year (assuming USC and Texas play in the Rose Bowl) is Fiesta-Fiesta-Orange-Sugar.

Other possibility is Fiesta-Orange-Sugar-Fiesta, but I don't think it has anything to do with who the Fiesta picks in that first spot.

[Degenerate]

Ohio State has two losses (one of which was pretty convincing, to Penn State)

^Didn't see the game^

[Killian]

Jay, PSU has a huge history with the Orange Bowl. ND will be selected by the Fiesta, then the Orange has to take a confrence winner. PSU fits that bill. The Fiesta will also end up with the second at-large pick. I'm very optimistic that ND will be selected by the Fiesta.

Actually, the way I understand it, if the Fiesta takes Notre Dame, there is a good likeliehood that they get stuck with West Virginia as the opponent..

Penn State v. Oregon or Notre Dame v. West Virginia?

My understanding is Fiesta has the first pick and they can take whom ever they want. If they take an at-large, the Orange is forced to take a conference champion. They would select PSU. The Sugar has a built in with the SEC, so they get LSU/UGA/etc. The Fiesta then gets another shot of anyone they want, probably an at-large. Back to Orange who would take the ACC champ, and Sugar gets stuck with Big East champ.

So:
Rose - USC-Texas
Fiesta - ND-OSU/UO
Orange - PSU-VaTech
Sugar - LSU/UGA-WVU/USF

[Terry in Crapchester]

the Orange has to take a confrence winner.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Orange has to take either the ACC or Big East champ. They'll take whoever wins the ACC championship game (FSU would be ranked below WVU but they'll pick FSU in that scenario on the basis of location). With their open pick, I'm not certain they're locked into a conference winner. If you know differently, let me know.

[Killian]

the Orange has to take a confrence winner.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Orange has to take either the ACC or Big East champ. They'll take whoever wins the ACC championship game (FSU would be ranked below WVU but they'll pick FSU in that scenario on the basis of location). With their open pick, I'm not certain they're locked into a conference winner. If you know differently, let me know.

I was off a bit. The ACC has a tie in with the Orange. So they will have to fill one spot, and they pick right after the Fiesta. If the Fiesta goes with an at-large, then the Orange has to select a confrence champ. It's a rule in the BCS selection process. The SEC is tied to the Sugar, so that leaves them with PSU or the Big East champ. I assume they will take PSU.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Jay, PSU has a huge history with the Orange Bowl. ND will be selected by the Fiesta, then the Orange has to take a confrence winner. PSU fits that bill. The Fiesta will also end up with the second at-large pick. I'm very optimistic that ND will be selected by the Fiesta.

Actually, the way I understand it, if the Fiesta takes Notre Dame, there is a good likeliehood that they get stuck with West Virginia as the opponent..

Penn State v. Oregon or Notre Dame v. West Virginia?

My understanding is Fiesta has the first pick and they can take whom ever they want. If they take an at-large, the Orange is forced to take a conference champion. They would select PSU. The Sugar has a built in with the SEC, so they get LSU/UGA/etc. The Fiesta then gets another shot of anyone they want, probably an at-large. Back to Orange who would take the ACC champ, and Sugar gets stuck with Big East champ.

So:
Rose - USC-Texas
Fiesta - ND-OSU/UO
Orange - PSU-VaTech
Sugar - LSU/UGA-WVU/USF

Agree with you as to how the matchups ultimately will turn out, but I think the order of selection is slightly different.

As I understand it, conference champs who do not participate in the national championship game are automatically slated into particular bowls according to the following criteria:

Rose Bowl: Big 10 and Pac-10
Sugar: SEC
Orange: ACC or Big East (Orange Bowl's choice)
Fiesta: Big 12 (also Pac-10 in years when Rose Bowl hosts national championship game).

Those picks aren't included in the order. Thus, initially, USC and Texas would be sent to the Rose Bowl, LSU/Georgia winner to the Sugar Bowl, and Va Tech/FSU winner to the Orange Bowl. Remaining teams (Penn State, Big East champ, and two at-large bids) are picked by the bowls according to the following order:

1. Fiesta
2. Fiesta
3. Orange
4. Sugar

I believe the Fiesta gets the first two picks because USC would be playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year if they were not playing for the national championship (any bowl that loses its conference tie-in to the championship game gets first picks).

[Ken]

Ohio State has two losses (one of which was pretty convincing, to Penn State)

I've got the game, I could mail you a copy of it. If I did so and you were to watch it, you'd see a game that was as even as could be. Basically, one int and one big sack separated the teams.

I'm not sure what you call "convincing"...but the PSU/OSU game was very close. As I've said, OSU is a couple plays away from being defeated this year - PSU is one second away from it. I see both teams as BCS-worthy, myself.

This is probably worhty of another thread, PSU... but I don't necessarily see it the way you do. I saw a PSU team that was able to put up 17 pts, then completely shut their own offense down and stifle OSU w/their D. I do believe that had PSU not shut down their offense to the degree they did, we would have seen another 7, possibly 10 pts. on the board. With all that said, by no menas was it a rout either.

[Shawn Marion]

The order changes every year.

This year the order is

Orange (ACC tie in)
Fiesta (Big 12 tie in)
Sugar (SEC tie in)

With Texas in the NC, the fiesta would get first pick, then orange, then fiesta, then the sugar.

The selection process is more of a bidding process than a live draft. The Bowls turn their top 3 picks into the BCS committee with a stipulation that 1 of the top 2 picks must be a conference champion.

Unless tOSU is the Orange Bowls first pick then it is most likely ND v. OSU in the Fiesta, PSU v. ACC Champ in the Orange and SEC v. WV in the Sugar Bowl with WV being the last pick.

[Shoalzie]

Beyond 1 and 2, who cares about who's 3, 4, or 8? What is the benefit of going to BCS game that isn't the title game? You get to go to a fancy bowl game and receive a fat paycheck no matter if you win or lose. You don't get to play for the big enchilada so it seems pretty hollow to me. I never got off on the idea of Michigan going to "a BCS bowl". They lost to Texas last year in the Rose Bowl but Texas didn't win anything for that I would've want for my team. These bowl games aside from the title game are so anti-climactic. Why does anyone sweat over if Ohio State or Oregon will get an at-large? They'll play in the C or D game of the BCS, which means absolutely nothing. I know I'm a broken record about this but the entire whole bowl system is senseless. They play one meaningful game and 26 or so pointless games. The champion isn't always a sure thing but atleast a 4 or 5 loss team can play the week before Christmas to have a half-empty stadium and minimal audience on ESPN2 because it's tradition.

[Shawn Marion]

Of course, none of this really matters when the BCS also has this laying aroung:

In certain situations, a host team for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, or Nokia Sugar Bowl may, but need not, be placed in another BCS game. Factors that are considered in making that determination include:

(1) The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years;

(2) Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season;

(3) The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years;

(4) An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

[buckeye_in_sc]

Agree with PSUFan the tOSU/PSU game was pretty much dead even...

Ken/Van etc...7 of PSU's points came on a INT return to the tOSU 6 and at that tOSU almost had them stopped on 3rd down facing 4th and goal...then throw in the fact that after PSU kicked a FG on their first drive of the second half the OSU defense held them WITHOUT A FIRST DOWN THE REST of the FUCKING GAME...

pretty even to me...i mean tOSU is 10 points away...they are playing great ball right now (muffed punts aside) and anyone who argues otherwise is an idiot in my book...

I am starting to see Shoalzie's point of view...if Oregon goes good for them...actually if tOSU goes Cap ONE I can go see them (8 hour drive for me)...

[JayDuck]

2. As for Oregon going over ND, yes, ND did lose to a Michigan State team that finished 5-6. But that team was playing much better early on -- it seemed like the bottom fell out of their season when tOSU blocked that FG at the end of the first half and returned it for a TD.

Weak argument. Michigan State is a 5-6 team, period.

In any event, Oregon lost to USC by 32 points. That's the same USC team that only beat ND by 3 points and whom ND had a very real shot at beating until the very end of the game. The difference in play between those games (the only common opponent on their schedules thus far, with ND still to play Stanford) makes the extra ND loss a wash, imho, as far as BCS bids are concerned.

having a "close loss" to a common opponent makes losing to a below .500 team a wash?

Taking a one game comparison against a common team is, and has always been, meaningless.

Fresno State had a very real shot at beating USC until the end of the game Saturday.

Oregon beat Fresno State this year. In fact, Fresno State never had the ball and a chance to take the lead, or even tie, in the 4th quarter of their game against Oregon.

ASU had a real shot at beating USC in the 4th quarter.

Oregon beat ASU by 17 the next week.

If you are going to try to explain away the loss to a bad Michigan State team by way of the "MSU was a good team then" argument, you can make the same types of arguments for Oregon.

The USC/Oregon game was USC's first test this year. We lead them at the half and fell apart in the 2nd half.

The next week USC played at ASU. They played even worse against ASU and trailed by more at the half. They struggled more to come back in the 2nd half before just putting them away at the end of the game.

The week following that, they let (3-7) Arizona hang with them all game long. It was 28-21 going into the 4th quarter before 'SC finally put them away.

Then at the end of this bad stretch for 'SC, they played at Notre Dame.

Switch the placement of those games (Let Notre Dame play 'SC when we did and us play them while they are mired in a "bad stretch") and you would likely get very different results.

Likewise, Oregon had a new O.C. and a completely revamped offense this year. We weren't clicking yet, until a couple weeks after the 'SC game as it was.


A loss is a loss is a loss. Notre Dame has more of them, and to an under .500 team.

[JayDuck]

[Not disputing anything Van said about Oregon, but I do question why Oregon would leapfrog ND on the basis of last week's games, when ND previously had been ahead of Oregon. I'm not quite ready to put my tinfoil hat on just yet, but it almost seems like someone wants to keep ND out of the Top Six to avoid the sort of controversy that would entail. .

Are you kidding? A bias AGAINST Notre Dame?

First off, Notre DAme is 5th and 6th in the opinion polls and 12th by the computers, so obviously it's the people keeping them as high as they are, not the other way around.

2nd, It's easy to see why Oregon Jumped Notre Dame.

last week, in the BCS polls, Notre Dame was .0002 total BCS points ahead of Oregon.

Oregon was 10th in the opinion polls and moved up to 8th. We moved up because Miami and Alabama lost.

Notre Dame had 1 team ahead of them lose (Miami), Oregon had 2 teams ahead of them lose (Miami and Alabama). No conspiracy there.

Also, we gained a little ground in the computer rankings (not much) because of Fresno State's showing against USC.

Notre Dame lost a little ground in the computers because Michigan State finished below .500 with a loss and their best win (Michigan) lost.

No conspiracy there.

[Ken]

Beyond 1 and 2, who cares about who's 3, 4, or 8? What is the benefit of going to BCS game that isn't the title game? You get to go to a fancy bowl game and receive a fat paycheck no matter if you win or lose. You don't get to play for the big enchilada so it seems pretty hollow to me. I never got off on the idea of Michigan going to "a BCS bowl". They lost to Texas last year in the Rose Bowl but Texas didn't win anything for that I would've want for my team. These bowl games aside from the title game are so anti-climactic. Why does anyone sweat over if Ohio State or Oregon will get an at-large? They'll play in the C or D game of the BCS, which means absolutely nothing. I know I'm a broken record about this but the entire whole bowl system is senseless. They play one meaningful game and 26 or so pointless games. The champion isn't always a sure thing but atleast a 4 or 5 loss team can play the week before Christmas to have a half-empty stadium and minimal audience on ESPN2 because it's tradition.

Check your pulse. You sure you have anything resembling passion for CFB?

[Cicero]

I'm hoping for a tFSU/PSU Orange Bowl.

[Ken]

Agree with PSUFan the tOSU/PSU game was pretty much dead even...

Ken/Van etc...7 of PSU's points came on a INT return to the tOSU 6 and at that tOSU almost had them stopped on 3rd down facing 4th and goal...then throw in the fact that after PSU kicked a FG on their first drive of the second half the OSU defense held them WITHOUT A FIRST DOWN THE REST of the FUCKING GAME...

pretty even to me...i mean tOSU is 10 points away...they are playing great ball right now (muffed punts aside) and anyone who argues otherwise is an idiot in my book...

I am starting to see Shoalzie's point of view...if Oregon goes good for them...actually if tOSU goes Cap ONE I can go see them (8 hour drive for me)...

buckeye, not sure what part of my statement that 'PSU completely shut down their offensive gameplan during the second half' you don't understand. I'd be surprised if PSU threw more than THREE passes the entire second half. Not to say OSU didn't play great D, but PSU's gameplan sure helped their cause. Why buckeye fan continuously claims that they shut down PSU's offense in the second half has always been beyond me. Don't pull that card.

And WTF is this about? VVV

tOSU almost had them stopped on 3rd down facing 4th and goal

I know van's got a 'moral victory' thread going on somewhere on this board... wouldn't this quote be better served over there? PSU scored a TD, no?

Now, with all that said, don't group me entirely with van. I'm not ready to say that PSU won convincingly. I'm also not of Dave's contention that it was even with the exceptioin of a play or two. Put me squarely in the middle.

[Ken]

but it almost seems like someone wants to keep ND out of the Top Six to avoid the sort of controversy that would entail.

When you show me a BCS 'tweak' that entails anything resembling a rule making it HARDER for ND to become BCS eligible, I'll listen.

[Terry in Crapchester]

What is the benefit of going to BCS game that isn't the title game? You get to go to a fancy bowl game and receive a fat paycheck no matter if you win or lose.

I suppose from the perspective of most teams, there isn't much difference between a BCS non-title game and one of the higher tier non-BCS bowls. After all, bowl payouts are divided equally among conference members.

From Notre Dame's perspective, however, the difference is huge, and it is financial. A BCS bowl pays out $13 million to ND. Not exactly sure what the highest non-BCS bowl payouts are, but they're somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million. That's an $11 million difference, give or take.

And this is the last year of the current deal. Beginning next year, ND's cut for a BCS bowl goes down to $4.5 million, which is the same as a second conference member gets in a BCS bowl now (incidentally, that also concerns me about ND's BCS chances -- any bowl that takes them will have to come up with an extra $8.5 million just to cover the payout. As JayDuck said, it's all about the Benjamins, and I'm not sure that ND would be worth it, financially speaking. We're one of the smallest 20 or so Division 1-A schools, so our alumni base is smaller than most places.)

Bottom line, from ND's perspective, is that missing out on a BCS bid this year will cost us a significant amount of money that we'll be hard-pressed to recoup, if ever.

[Terry in Crapchester]

2. As for Oregon going over ND, yes, ND did lose to a Michigan State team that finished 5-6. But that team was playing much better early on -- it seemed like the bottom fell out of their season when tOSU blocked that FG at the end of the first half and returned it for a TD.

Weak argument. Michigan State is a 5-6 team, period.

In any event, Oregon lost to USC by 32 points. That's the same USC team that only beat ND by 3 points and whom ND had a very real shot at beating until the very end of the game. The difference in play between those games (the only common opponent on their schedules thus far, with ND still to play Stanford) makes the extra ND loss a wash, imho, as far as BCS bids are concerned.

having a "close loss" to a common opponent makes losing to a below .500 team a wash?

Taking a one game comparison against a common team is, and has always been, meaningless.

Fresno State had a very real shot at beating USC until the end of the game Saturday.

Oregon beat Fresno State this year. In fact, Fresno State never had the ball and a chance to take the lead, or even tie, in the 4th quarter of their game against Oregon.

ASU had a real shot at beating USC in the 4th quarter.

Oregon beat ASU by 17 the next week.

If you are going to try to explain away the loss to a bad Michigan State team by way of the "MSU was a good team then" argument, you can make the same types of arguments for Oregon.

The USC/Oregon game was USC's first test this year. We lead them at the half and fell apart in the 2nd half.

The next week USC played at ASU. They played even worse against ASU and trailed by more at the half. They struggled more to come back in the 2nd half before just putting them away at the end of the game.

The week following that, they let (3-7) Arizona hang with them all game long. It was 28-21 going into the 4th quarter before 'SC finally put them away.

Then at the end of this bad stretch for 'SC, they played at Notre Dame.

Switch the placement of those games (Let Notre Dame play 'SC when we did and us play them while they are mired in a "bad stretch") and you would likely get very different results.

Likewise, Oregon had a new O.C. and a completely revamped offense this year. We weren't clicking yet, until a couple weeks after the 'SC game as it was.


A loss is a loss is a loss. Notre Dame has more of them, and to an under .500 team.

If you don't like that argument, how about this one:

ND has a tougher schedule than Oregon. At least according to Sagarin, ND is 1-1 against teams ranked in Sagarin's Top 10, Oregon is 0-1 against Sagarin's Top Ten.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt05.htm

Losses were once a separate category in determining the overall BCS ranking, but that's not the case anymore.

[Terry in Crapchester]

but it almost seems like someone wants to keep ND out of the Top Six to avoid the sort of controversy that would entail.

When you show me a BCS 'tweak' that entails anything resembling a rule making it HARDER for ND to become BCS eligible, I'll listen.

Not tweaking the rules to make it harder for ND to make the BCS, but ND has less margin for error in qualifying for the BCS than does any conference member.

If you play in one of the six BCS conferences, win your conference and you're in the BCS, regardless of record or overall ranking. ND, OTOH, has to be at least 9-2 and at least #12 in overall BCS rankings before ND can even be considered for an at-large bid.

Not to mention, at random any team in a BCS conference has no less than a 1-in-12 chance of winning its conference. ND, in theory, has a 2-in-113 chance of earning an at-large BCS bid (all 119 1-A schools minus the six automatic bids). Yes, I know those numbers are theoretical rather than practical, but you get the picture.

As an illustration, in the last 3 years 3 teams (FSU in '02, Michigan and Pittsburgh in '04) have earned automatic BCS bids despite overall rankings that would have disqualified ND from BCS consideration. And it could happen again in as many as two scenarios this year, to wit:

• FSU has qualified for the ACC championship game. They're currently ranked #24 in the BCS poll. If they beat Va Tech or possibly Miami, they're in the BCS, but I don't think they get up to #12 even if they also beat Florida.
• South Florida, not ranked in the BCS Top 25, is still in contention for the Big East title. If they beat UConn next week and West Virginia the following week, they win the Big East's automatic BCS bid, and won't leap to #12.
• West Virginia could lose to Pitt next week, then beat South Florida and still win the Big East. In that scenario they certainly fall out of the Top 12. Even if West Virginia wins out, there is a slim chance they could still fall out of the Top 12, although UCLA would have to beat USC and Georgia would have to beat LSU in the SEC championship game for that to happen.

[JayDuck]

If you don't like that argument, how about this one:

ND has a tougher schedule than Oregon. At least according to Sagarin, ND is 1-1 against teams ranked in Sagarin's Top 10, Oregon is 0-1 against Sagarin's Top Ten.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt05.htm

How about that is a horrible argument.

For one thing, the source that you are citing has Oregon rated ahead of Notre Dame.

Another thing, Michigan in the Top-10 with 4 losses?

Thirdly - Sagarin has Notre Dame's SOS rated 22nd and Oregon's 30th. Hardly enough difference to warrant more losses for one team.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Fwiw, dude, I think it'll be ND and Oregon getting the at-large bids. Oregon is the only one-loss team in contention for an at-large bid, and with the Fiesta Bowl having two bids to fill, you have a huge geographic advantage being the only team west of the Mississippi in realistic contention for an at-large bid.

Having said all of that, ironically you have to root for USC against UCLA. If UCLA were to pull off the upset, that would throw the Pac-10 into chaos, and there's no telling how the top three teams would sort out.

Particularly with the Fiesta Bowl having two slots to fill, tOSU could be in sort of a jam, having the same number of losses as ND and having played in that bowl in two of the last three seasons.

[Terry in Crapchester]

Another thing, Michigan in the Top-10 with 4 losses?

True, but that's a computer ranking. And remember, it's the computers where ND is down as well.

Seems to me that perhaps the polls are more reliable than the computers. Who'd have thunk it?

In any event, all the more reason why we need a playoff in college football, and why the playoff needs to include a significant number of teams.