So I'm taking a look at the standings and RPI's and I think it's a possibility the Big-10 only gets 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament- although, I'd say it's unlikely.
Taking a look at the standings, here's what I think each team has to do to get in....
1.Wisconsin.....already a lock even if they lose out.
2.Ohio State.....also a lock even if they lose out.
3.Indiana........16-6 (6-3 conf).....Probably needs to go 3-4 the rest of the way or go 2-5 and get 1 in the Big-10 tourney
4.Iowa...........13-10 (5-4)......Needs to go 5-4 with 2 wins in Big-10 tourney or 6-1 and 1 win max in BTT
5.Michigan.......16-7 (4-4)......Needs to go 5-3 or 4-4 with 2+ wins in BTT
6.Illinois..........17-8 (5-5)......Needs to go 4-2 and is a lock or 3-3 with at least 1 BTT win
7.Michigan St....17-7 (4-5).....Needs to go 3-2 and possibly 1 BTT win or 2-3 with 2+ BTT wins
8.Purdue..........15-8 (4-5).....Needs to go 6-1 with 1 BTT win or 5-2 and 2+ BTT wins
Northwestern, Penn State, and Minnesota all need to win the BTT if they want any shot of making the NCAA.
Most likely Indiana will not fall apart enough that they miss the tourney, so I'm assuming the Top 3 get in. Then, the 4th team with the best chance is a tie between Michigan State and Illinois. After that, based on schedules, I'd say Iowa and Michigan are the next best options but both are very unlikely to make the Big Dance. I think Purdue has about a 5% chance of making the tourney.
Big-10......3 bids?
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buckeye_in_sc
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TheJON
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I still think the Big-10 was very good last year they just had a bad couple of days. Iowa lost on the biggest fluke shot of the year. Ohio State just seemed tired against Georgetown. Illinois lost a nail biter to a very good U-dub team in the 2nd round. Michigan State was clearly out of gas late in the year and got upset. Indiana made a solid run that fell short in a close game to a very good Gonzaga team. And I forget what Wisconsin did for some reason.
The NCAA tournament is so much of a crapshoot anymore. If a conference does poorly in the tourney it doesn't really prove you were a lousy conference.
The NCAA tournament is so much of a crapshoot anymore. If a conference does poorly in the tourney it doesn't really prove you were a lousy conference.
The Big 10 is "down" enough that IMO 9-7 in conference isn't a lock by any means for a bid. 8-8 is fuggetaboudit unless you have a miracle BTT run.
I think 4 bids will be what the B10 gets in the end. Bucky and tO$U are locks and IU is a near lock at this point. The fourth is up for grabs. The schedule down the stretch favors MSU but Iowa, Michigan and Illinois are still in the mix. Hard for me to fathom Purdue putting a run together to get in.
In terms of seeding, Bucky and tO$U are line for 2 seeds or better but then we'll see a big drop as my guess is IU comes in around a 6 or 7 and that 4th team would be an 8/9 type seed. IF a 5th team gets in they'll be in the 10 range.
I think 4 bids will be what the B10 gets in the end. Bucky and tO$U are locks and IU is a near lock at this point. The fourth is up for grabs. The schedule down the stretch favors MSU but Iowa, Michigan and Illinois are still in the mix. Hard for me to fathom Purdue putting a run together to get in.
In terms of seeding, Bucky and tO$U are line for 2 seeds or better but then we'll see a big drop as my guess is IU comes in around a 6 or 7 and that 4th team would be an 8/9 type seed. IF a 5th team gets in they'll be in the 10 range.
"Our staff is going to ensure that anyone who attends this University and wears the Indiana uniform will make this privilege among their highest priorities and not treat the opportunity as an entitlement,'' Crean said in a statement. "We fully expect our student-athletes to accept the responsibilities academically, athletically and socially that come with representing one of the top programs in college basketball history."
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King Crimson
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Iowa would have to come from pretty far back rpi wise....FWIW. much less margin for error than MSU, UM and Illinois. comparatively speaking. 10 losses and that rpi in the 80's is going to start to look pretty gaudy.
http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2007&c=B10
http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2007&c=B10
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MgoBlue-LightSpecial
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TheJON
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Agree, Crimson......gonna take a near miracle for the Hawks to get in but now that we're back in the conversation, this team needs to set their goals for the tourney. I expected NIT before the year, but I like the improvement this team is making. If they make the tourney in a rebuilding year like this, I think many of the Alford haters will have shut their mouthes.
The RPI is bad right now, but it is getting better. We are currently #85 in the RPI and were #102 before the Indiana win. #85 is not good, but it's slowly moving up.
The way I see it is the road to the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow night at Minnesota. I'm expecting the team to play shitty after the emotional week we had last week and knowing we've got a trip to Madison on Saturday, but this team needs to go up there and get the win. Doesn't matter if it's a 1 pt win or a 40 pt win. A win is a win. That gets us to 6-4 in the Big-10. From there, we need to go 5-1. A loss at Wiscy on Saturday is probable. But all the rest of the games are winnable. I can't see either Purdue, Illinois, or Northwestern coming into Carver and winning. So that should be 3 wins. We should win at Penn State.....there's 4. And I think our NCAA tourney hopes may come down to the game at Michigan State. I think 1993 is the last time we've won there and we usually get rolled. But this is a different Michigan State team. They aren't going to blow anyone out. But if somehow we can go into the Breslin and find a way to win that game, I think we have a very good chance of making the tourney.
The RPI is bad right now, but it is getting better. We are currently #85 in the RPI and were #102 before the Indiana win. #85 is not good, but it's slowly moving up.
The way I see it is the road to the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow night at Minnesota. I'm expecting the team to play shitty after the emotional week we had last week and knowing we've got a trip to Madison on Saturday, but this team needs to go up there and get the win. Doesn't matter if it's a 1 pt win or a 40 pt win. A win is a win. That gets us to 6-4 in the Big-10. From there, we need to go 5-1. A loss at Wiscy on Saturday is probable. But all the rest of the games are winnable. I can't see either Purdue, Illinois, or Northwestern coming into Carver and winning. So that should be 3 wins. We should win at Penn State.....there's 4. And I think our NCAA tourney hopes may come down to the game at Michigan State. I think 1993 is the last time we've won there and we usually get rolled. But this is a different Michigan State team. They aren't going to blow anyone out. But if somehow we can go into the Breslin and find a way to win that game, I think we have a very good chance of making the tourney.
The Seer wrote:Pac-10 gets 6 in, possibly 7.....
I'd love to hear an explaination of this.
Don't misunderstand me...whatever you say to support this will be straight-up wrong(unless the Tourney radically changes the invite process without telling us), and I'll probably shred every (wrong) point you make...
But I'd still enjoy hearing it. Go ahead...explain exactly how either Washington or Kal won't be sitting at home watching TV...go right ahead.
Yeah, buddy...UDub is going to win 6 of its next 7...bet the rent on it. Or Kal will go 6 of 8...oh, but wait...that means Arizona would be left in the cold...or Oregon...
Yeah, I'm waiting on this explaination...to Seer's uneducated guess...which is almost-impossible from a logical standpoint.
6? Maybe.
7? Go ahead and show your work on that one, NotSuchAGoodSeerOfMath.
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Mikey wrote:
And off course Oregon will have to win at least one more game to make it in too.
Not a sure bet, as of late.
I guess they heard Bellotti signed a contract extension, and they naturally assumed that underachieving and never playing up to the expectations of highly-recruited talent was the norm at the university.
I got 99 problems but the 'vid ain't one
Dinsdale wrote:I guess they heard Bellotti signed a contract extension, and they naturally assumed that underachieving and never playing up to the expectations of highly-recruited talent was the norm at the university.
...and we all know phil will write the check to buy out belloti's contract if they have another lousy season.
Michigan is definitely running out of chances to prove they're a credible team this year. Not much of a shock they lost in Columbus but they need to beat a tournament team. If it came down to comparing resumes with other teams around the country with similar records...what has Michigan done to seperate themselves from the rest? The best thing for them would be to miss the tournament and hopefully trigger the firing of Amaker. Unless they like being mediocre and underachieving, then I'm sure we'll see the turtle neck in Ann Arbor next year and beyond.
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TheJON
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I'm hoping Michigan goes on an unexpected run and makes the tourney simply because I want Amacker to stay. I got a buddy that's a big Wolverine fan and he hates Amacker and if they keep him, he'll melt down big time and it should be entertaining to watch his meltdown. Amacker is the worst coach in the Big-10 and Michigan deserves him!
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MgoBlue-LightSpecial
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I'm loving this lose-lose situation for Michigan fans. You know, all 3 of them that still are "fans" of college basketball. Nobody I know here likes Amaker. At all. Of course, there's no blame to be dealt for that. Yet Doucherine fans, at the same time, are painfully tired of their team's consistent absence from the NCAA Tourney. They just want a sniff. That's all. So the best situation for them is for their team to bubble its way into the Tourney, and get throttled by 55 points to a middle of the road Big East team or something in the first round. That way their Tourney fix will be satisfied, and Amaker will still be out the door. More than likely, anyway.
Dinsdale wrote:The Seer wrote:Pac-10 gets 6 in, possibly 7.....
I'd love to hear an explaination of this.
Don't misunderstand me...whatever you say to support this will be straight-up wrong(unless the Tourney radically changes the invite process without telling us), and I'll probably shred every (wrong) point you make...
But I'd still enjoy hearing it. Go ahead...explain exactly how either Washington or Kal won't be sitting at home watching TV...go right ahead.
Yeah, buddy...UDub is going to win 6 of its next 7...bet the rent on it. Or Kal will go 6 of 8...oh, but wait...that means Arizona would be left in the cold...or Oregon...
Yeah, I'm waiting on this explaination...to Seer's uneducated guess...which is almost-impossible from a logical standpoint.
6? Maybe.
7? Go ahead and show your work on that one, NotSuchAGoodSeerOfMath.
UCLA, WASH ST., OREGON, SUC, STANFORD, ARIZONA = all in. WASHINGTON is 15-8 with
a game left vs. Pitt; and could finish 9-9 in league......
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Terry in Crapchester
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My thoughts, fwiw . . . (as to conferences already mentioned and my own interests)
Big Ten gets 4-5. Wisconsin and Ohio State are locks, and Indiana probably gets in. In addition, the Tournament Selection Committee takes 1-2 teams from among Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. I don't think Iowa (sorry, JON) or Purdue gets in.
Pac-10 gets 6. UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Stanford and Arizona are all in. Anyone else would have to win the Pac-10 tourney.
I think the Big 12 gets 5, but 6 is a possibility. I see the Big 12 sending aTm, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas and Okie State. It's also possible that either Oklahoma, Taco Tech, Nebraska or Missouri (but probably not more than one of them) could sneak in.
MVC could send anywhere from 3-5. SIU, Creighton and Missouri State all look pretty solid. Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Bradley all could make a run at it. The next few weeks should be crucial, and I think at least one of the teams in that second group gets left out.
Big East is something of a question mark for me. I see the Big East getting 6 bids this year, possibly 7 but no more. The question is how to sort out who goes and who doesn't. Pitt and Marquette are probably in for sure, and six (Cincinnati, Rutgers, South Florida, Seton Hall, DePaul and St. John's) are probably out for sure. Of the remaining 8, it's obvious that some will make it and others won't. The problem is that you could probably make an argument for or against any of those teams, and there isn't much to differentiate among some of them.
Among mid-majors, the CAA is another potential sleeper that could get as many as four teams in this year. VCU, Hofstra, Old Dominion and Drexel all have a shot. George Mason reached the Final Four last season, but they'll be NIT-bound this year, in all likelihood.
Disclaimer to all of the above: the NCAA says that conference affiliation is not taken into consideration in awarding at-large bids. But I'm not sure how much stock I put in that.
Big Ten gets 4-5. Wisconsin and Ohio State are locks, and Indiana probably gets in. In addition, the Tournament Selection Committee takes 1-2 teams from among Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. I don't think Iowa (sorry, JON) or Purdue gets in.
Pac-10 gets 6. UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Stanford and Arizona are all in. Anyone else would have to win the Pac-10 tourney.
I think the Big 12 gets 5, but 6 is a possibility. I see the Big 12 sending aTm, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas and Okie State. It's also possible that either Oklahoma, Taco Tech, Nebraska or Missouri (but probably not more than one of them) could sneak in.
MVC could send anywhere from 3-5. SIU, Creighton and Missouri State all look pretty solid. Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Bradley all could make a run at it. The next few weeks should be crucial, and I think at least one of the teams in that second group gets left out.
Big East is something of a question mark for me. I see the Big East getting 6 bids this year, possibly 7 but no more. The question is how to sort out who goes and who doesn't. Pitt and Marquette are probably in for sure, and six (Cincinnati, Rutgers, South Florida, Seton Hall, DePaul and St. John's) are probably out for sure. Of the remaining 8, it's obvious that some will make it and others won't. The problem is that you could probably make an argument for or against any of those teams, and there isn't much to differentiate among some of them.
Among mid-majors, the CAA is another potential sleeper that could get as many as four teams in this year. VCU, Hofstra, Old Dominion and Drexel all have a shot. George Mason reached the Final Four last season, but they'll be NIT-bound this year, in all likelihood.
Disclaimer to all of the above: the NCAA says that conference affiliation is not taken into consideration in awarding at-large bids. But I'm not sure how much stock I put in that.
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