Here's an interesting article on the topic:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/sport ... .html?_r=1
A few points:
1. The author seems to insinuate that it wasn't the basketball-only schools forcing him out. Makes some sense, in a way, since Marinatto's background was similar to their own: he was the AD at Providence before joining the Big East's Commissioner's Office (as were both of his predecessors, Gavitt and Tranghese).
2. As of yet, there hasn't been any serious talk of the basketball schools leaving.
3. As the author insinuates, the recent expansion threatens to water down the Big East basketball tourney, which is its remaining crown jewel. But the expansion probably was necessary to keep the conference together.
4. An interesting fact pointed out by the author: if the Big East were to split along football/non-football lines, the football conference would not immediately get an automatic bid to the NCAA basketball tourney unless it were able to convince ND, or at least one of the non-football members, to stay with them. There would be a way around that -- the football conference could secure its automatic bid status by inviting two more members of C-USA to join -- but the window of opportunity for that is relatively limited, from a time standpoint.
5. Disagree with the author that the ACC is ND's only realistic alternative. We have a standing offer from the B1G, and I also think the Big XII would jump on us if we were interested (in fact, the Big XII reportedly is even willing to consider us as a member for everything but football). We also could form a new conference with the basketball-only schools in the Big East if they do leave. The ACC may be our best option other than the status quo, but it's certainly not our only option.
Left Seater wrote:What happens to the conf if BSU and SMU go TCU?
I think the two schools are in completely different positions in that regard.
SMU doesn't bring much to the table other than access to the DFW market (where they're hardly the #1 draw) and as a travel partner to Houston, since they're the only schools west of the Mississippi joining for all sports. Losing Boise could be fatal, though -- the most important thing for the Big East now is to negotiate the best TV deal it can get, as well as the best slice of the playoff revenue pie it can get. Boise gives them more leverage in those negotiations than any other member going forward.
I still think Swarbrick is the best candidate for the commissioner's job, for a few reasons. As chair of the Big East expansion committee, I'm guessing he had several meeting with the AD's of the prospective new members, and he might be in the best position to reassure those AD's moving forward. He's also an excellent negotiator as proven by the fact that he previously brought both a Super Bowl and a Final Four to Indianapolis, and also got Indianapolis a sweetheart deal with the NCAA where Indianapolis hosts either a men's or women's pod site or regional every year (except the year they had the Final Four). I'm not sure he'd want the commissioner's job, though.