FOX power ranking...interesting

[G.O.]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4931952?print=true

MOVING UP: Giants (from 15 to 6), Falcons (from 17 to 9), Cardinals (from 29 to 24)

MOVING DOWN: Bills (from 7 to 14), Chiefs (from 11 to 15), Rams (from 20 to 29)

The FOXSports.com NFL Power Ratings are based on the innovative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings from FootballOutsiders.com. The DVOA system breaks down every single play of the season and compares each one to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. Each play is judged on both total yards and yards towards a first down.



Remember, of course, that any statistical formula is not a replacement for your own judgment, just a tool to use. Early in the season, with just a couple of games to go on, ratings are going to fluctuate wildly.

Teams are ranked by a formula that combines the team's rating at the end of 2004, our 2005 pre-season projections, and 2005 actual performance. Each week, the first two items will become less important, and the last item more important. (2005 performance is now one-half of the rating, while last week it was just one-third.) By Week 8, we'll only be basing the ratings on this year's games, and starting the next week, we'll start using a formula that makes early games less important so that we can account for teams that are heating up at the end of the year.

The power ratings table only gives each team's rank from 1-32. If you want to see the actual DVOA ratings, along with some additional numbers we use to judge teams, you can find those on FootballOutsiders.com. The team totals are here, and we also have separate pages for offense, defense, and special teams. There's also a more developed explanation for our methods here.

"2005 Only" represents rank based solely on this year's games. Offense, defense and special teams ranks also represent 2005 games only.

No extended commentary this week because of the Jewish holiday. Special thanks to Mike Tanier for writing some of this week's comments and finishing up the ratings after Monday Night Football.


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS POWER RANKINGS: Week 5


1. STEELERS 2-1 1 3 2 9 22
Dick LeBeau's zone blitz schemes vs. the San Diego offensive line that dominated New England looms as the most interesting matchup of Week 5. The Steelers managed to stay on top during the bye week because the Eagles and Bengals won ugly. NEXT: at SD

2. EAGLES 3-1 2 5 5 5 32
The Eagles' special teams, a strength for years, have been brutal this season; they're keeping the Eagles from the top spot. Todd France belongs on a team with Reggie Germany and Darius Holland, but he may not belong in the NFL. Hey, Kathy Ireland was a pretty good kicker in Necessary Roughness ... NEXT: at DAL — T.O. has stars in his eyes.

3. BENGALS 4-0 3 1 7 2 8
Big mistakes in the red zone turned a would-be blowout of the Texans into a tight game. The Bengals could be undefeated when they host the Steelers in Week 7, but injuries to both the team's centers could hamper them against their next opponent. NEXT: at JAX, and their two awesome defensive tackles.

4. COLTS 4-0 4 6 6 12 21
What if Peyton Manning were a soap opera character? "That bump on my head restored my memory! Touchdown passes — that's what I'm famous for! Why, throwing touchdowns feels so natural that I will toss four of them against the Titans! That was easy, but my next opponent may put up more of a fight." NEXT: at SF, where the Niners will not put up more of a fight.
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

5. CHARGERS 2-2 8 4 1 23 13
While everyone was busy watching the Chargers on offense, did anyone notice that Luis Castillo was beating New England replacement left tackle Nick Kazcur over and over? Kazcur is a rookie — but then again, so is Castillo. Don't be surprised to see him taking down Big Ben on Monday night. NEXT: vs. PIT

6. GIANTS 3-1 15 2 4 18 1
You can talk about Eli Manning all day long, but special teams have played a major part in this team's 3-1 start. According to our numbers, the Giants have gained 23.7 points worth of field position from special teams, and another 3.3 points because Jay Feely has been a better-than-average field goal kicker. NEXT: bye, then at DAL

7. BUCS 4-0 5 10 22 3 16
The high defensive rating shouldn't be too surprising: the Bucs still have a bunch of guys named Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, Anthony McFarland, Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they just have to hope that Brian Griese doesn't turn from Buddy Love back into The Nutty Professor. NEXT: at what's left of the Jets

8. PATRIOTS 2-2 6 19 13 24 15
NFL conventional wisdom summarized:
Week 1: The Patriots are so good that they can overcome the loss of Tedy Bruschi and win a third straight Super Bowl.
Week 2: The Patriots have been exposed! They might not even make the playoffs!
Week 3: The Patriots are so good that they can overcome the loss of Rodney Harrison and win a third straight Super Bowl.
Week 4: The Patriots have been exposed! They might not even make the playoffs!
NEXT: vs. ATL
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

9. FALCONS 3-1 17 8 9 8 17
The first convincing win of the season means a big jump in our rankings. One reason for worry: DVOA ranks their pass defense sixth but run defense 26th. NEXT: vs. NE

10. BRONCOS 3-1 12 12 14 6 23
The Broncos allowed the Dolphins to rush for 151 yards and average 4.6 yards per attempt in the opener. Since then, they've allowed just 2.9 yards per rush against hard-running teams like the Chargers and Chiefs. NEXT: vs. WAS — : It's Clinton Portis' homecoming as the Redskins come to town.

11. SEAHAWKS 2-2 9 9 3 22 26
The Seahawks allowed the Redskins to go 13-of-18 on third downs last week, and many of those conversions came on third-and-long. Throw in eight penalties and some missed field goals, and you aren't going to win many games. NEXT: at STL — Mike Holmgren's Waterloo.

12. PANTHERS 2-2 10 16 21 10 10
Played three good quarters against the Packers, then fell asleep in the fourth. The Panthers are inconsistent on offense, but they can afford to be because their defense forces lots of turnovers and three-and-outs. The special teams provide an extra boost: punter Jason Baker is pinning opponents, and the return teams have been solid. NEXT: at ARZ
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

13. DOLPHINS 2-1 14 7 15 4 11
With the Bills and Jets headed into the tank, the Dolphins have a realistic chance to finish second in the AFC East. Their defensive ranking may be even higher after Sunday's game. NEXT: at BUF

14. BILLS 1-3 7 20 25 15 2
Now averaging 0.75 touchdowns per game and considering a quarterback switch that will do little good. A rebuilding plan for the offense: Willis McGahee right on first down, Willis McGahee left on second down, Willis McGahee on the screen on third down. NEXT: vs. MIA — The Dolphins will give Bills fans "Frerotte Envy."

15. CHIEFS 2-2 11 14 10 25 7
Now, that's the Chiefs defense we all know and love! That great opener against the Jets is all that's keeping the Chiefs from sinking to the bottom of the defensive rankings like a lobster trap. NEXT: Bye, then vs. WAS.

16. JAGUARS 2-2 13 13 23 7 3
The NFL's most excitingly average team. Rushing for 12 yards in a game is sure to hurt a team's offensive ranking, unless they're the Eagles. NEXT: vs. the undefeated (sic) Bengals.
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

17. COWBOYS 2-2 16 17 12 19 18
Yes, the Cowboys rank ahead of the Redskins despite a head-to-head loss. The Redskins have nothing in their portfolio like Dallas' victory over the Chargers, the Cowboys outplayed the Skins in the Monday Night game, and the rating system likes many of the things that the Cowboys do on offense. Scoring, for example. NEXT: vs. PHI — The Eagles will put an end to any Cowboys-Redskins debate.

18. REDSKINS 3-0 18 21 16 16 29
What do the 2004 Jaguars and 1999 Patriots have in common? Like Washington, each team started off the season with three straight wins of three points or less. Neither team made the playoffs. Other teams that won three straight games by three points or less include the 8-8 Raiders of 1998 and the 9-7 Dolphins of 1999. Both teams went 2-6 over the second half of the season. That Dolphins team did make the playoffs, though, where they were pummeled 62-7 by Jacksonville. NEXT: at DEN

19. RAIDERS 1-3 22 15 8 26 24
If Drew Bledsoe checked down to his secondary receivers against the Raiders, he would have found them wide open. The Raiders still cannot defend the pass, and most quarterbacks won't obligingly stand in the pocket the whole afternoon like Bledsoe did. NEXT: Bye, then vs. SD.

20. BEARS 1-2 21 11 27 1 6
Cedric Benson will play a bigger role in the offense in the weeks to come, and the Bears are experimenting with some shotgun formations. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner was very specific in the Chicago Sun Times about how he planned to improve the offense: "We all have to do a better job." Thanks, coach. NEXT: at CLE
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

21. JETS 1-3 18 28 30 13 19
Doug Jolley: 4 receptions, 33 yards. Chris Baker: 14 receptions, 201 yards. According to our metrics, only Antonio Gates has been a better tight end than Baker. Yep, that trade for Jolley was smart. NEXT: vs. TB

22. SAINTS 2-2 24 23 17 20 31
Last week's game against the Bills ends differently if Terrence McGee isn't stopped at the goal line on that kickoff return or Ryan Lindell doesn't miss a field goal. NEXT: at GB

23. BROWNS 1-2 27 18 11 27 9
Schedule strength adjustments always lead to quirky results early in the season, like a team on its bye week going up four spots because it lost to two undefeated teams with high ratings. NEXT: vs. CHI

24. CARDINALS 1-3 29 22 20 14 20
Midway through the first quarter of the Mexico City game, the Cardinals looked so horrible that we were ready to rank them below USC and Texas. But the defense pitched a shutout (both Niners touchdowns were on fumble recoveries) and Josh McCown proved that he can beat a terrible team in a foreign country if you give him two great receivers to throw to. NEXT: vs. CAR
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

25. VIKINGS 1-3 23 27 28 21 12
Mike Tice's blame list for this week: 1) Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, 2) Daunte Culpepper, 3) the media, 4) rookie DE Erasmus James, for that late hit, 5) anyone on earth but himself. New owner Zygi Wilf is meeting with team officials this week to discuss, you know, changes in the team's management structure. NEXT: Tice scans the want-ads during the bye, then at CHI.

26. RAVENS 1-2 26 30 32 17 28
Despite their first win, the Ravens — you know, the team where some guy rushed for 2,000 yards a couple years ago — are ranked dead last in rushing offense DVOA. NEXT: at DET

27. LIONS 1-2 30 26 29 11 30
The refs blew the call! The refs blew the call! Here's some advice for Joey Harrington and the Lions: if you don't wait until the final drive to pick up 72 of your 137 passing yards, you won't need the replay booth to save you in the final seconds. NEXT: vs. BAL in what's sure to be a field-goal festival.

28. TITANS 1-3 25 25 19 30 5
The Titans' awful secondary had nowhere to hide against the Rams and Colts. They'll get a chance to straighten some things out this week. NEXT: A sort of homecoming as the former Oilers head to Houston. Titans owner Bud Adams never got rid of his Oilers supplies, by the way. Arena Football's Nashville Kats wear leftover Oilers socks. True story.
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk

29. RAMS 2-2 20 24 18 29 25
Speaking of lousy secondaries, the Rams defensive backs got the crouton treatment from the Giants, with Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey toasting them and tossing them around. Luckily, the Rams play in a division full of cupcakes. They have their next opponent's number, having beaten them three times last year. NEXT: vs. SEA, with jimmies and frosting.

30. PACKERS 0-4 28 29 24 28 27
The Packers' formula this season is to fall behind early and wait for a Brett Favre miracle late in the game. It just doesn't work anymore. Next: vs. NO

31. TEXANS 0-3 30 31 26 32 14
Unhappy fantasy owners of Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson should remember that the Texans have yet to play any of their games against the AFC West or NFC West. And yes, the Texans defense is ranked lower than their offense; what do you expect, Dom Capers to fire himself? Next: vs. TEN

32. 49ERS 1-3 32 32 31 31 4
Injuries are piling up. Reality is setting in. Alex Smith is starting to get loose. NEXT: vs. IND, and a chance to get comfy at the bottom of the rankings.




wow- the skins beat dallas in their crib in primetime and beat seattle at home- both are ranked ahead of them.

not to mention...the bills??

[T REX]

All you need to know is in the Steelers bio.....The Steelers managed to stay on top during the bye week because the Eagles and Bengals won ugly.

There are no ugly wins in this version of the NFL. Stupid.

[rozy]

Atlanta 9?

~click~