PSUFAN wrote:Hezbollah free zones are what we'll see in southern Lebanon shortly here, after the region is first cleared out by Israel to its general satisfaction and then that entire southern region of Lebanon is patrolled by a combination of U.N. forces and regular Lebanese army troops.
Wow...you said a mouthful. I certainly hope that things go as easily as you've described.
Easily? No, but it's coming, regardless.
UN/Lebanese forces will ensure that zones are Hezbollah free? I guess we can hope as much.
Overseen by Israeli troops and the threat of unmitigated retaliation should the Lebanese allow Hezbollah to use their land again to strike into Israel?
Yeah, I wouldn't sweat it too much.
Something similar is surely unfolding now in Iraq and Afghanistan, correct?
Nope, nothing of the sort is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The tiny border area dividing Lebanon and Israel is controllable in a way that's simply not the case in a country as vast and well populated as Iraq and as vast and mountainous as Afghanistan, which also shares an equally mountainous border with friendly Pakistan.
Adding to the mix is the simple fact that Israel's stake in this thing is a lot higher than the U.S.'s in Iraq or Afghanistan. While both the U.S. and Israel are pussy footing around in their respective battles only Israel is dealing with a sworn enemy that shares with them a tiny border.
Israel's task in securing the border region with Lebanon is a lot simpler than the U.S.'s in Iraq and Afghanistan, both militarily and especially politically.
Israel was able to dictate who was roaming around Lebanon in their prior occupation, correct?
Incorrect.
Able to? Yes.
Willing to? No.
Things change though when rockets sent from Lebanon start landing all over Haifa, and even as far south as Tel Aviv.
Israel
will secure to their satisfaction the southern portion of Lebanon. Hezbollah will be neutered there.
There's nobody and nothing in the Arab world that can say or do shit to Israel. Not Syria, surely not Iraq and definitely not Iran either.
Quite a nice pronouncement...but what makes you so sure of this? I invite you to do a little research on Syria and Iran, and their arsenals, beginning here:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/index.html
Now please...in the course of your research, if you find assurances that Syria and Iran are incapable of reaching Israel, or that they don't
have sufficiant materials, then by all means, set our minds at ease. Can you take it past a mere declaration, though?
Just about everything in your link described Iran being in the exploratory stage, and nearly all of it was conjecture that Iran is in fact developing WMD clandestinely.
Sorta like Iraq, huh?
Lotta good those conjectured weapons turned out to be, once the shit hit the fan.
If the Arab world has the means to produce/purchase and then accurately deliver WMD to Israel, well, what are they waiting for?
Maybe they do, maybe they don't. Problem there is the Arab world knows full well that Israel and her allies have the means so who's going to be the one to invite the inevitable destruction of their regime and their people by making moves towards Israel in that manner?
For all their talk of "jihad" and "glorious martyrdom" the cowards in charge in the Arab world don't seem too keen to put their own necks on the line when it gets right down to it, and getting right down to it is what's involved when you threaten Israel with WMD.
So, PSU, how do you see it working, in terms of diplomacy? Israel will agree to what, and under what circumstances?
That's not exactly what's being discussed here.
Sure it is, when you say only diplomacy wil prevail for Israel. It's exactly what's being discussed.
The point is this...Israel can't just muscle their way through this.
Sure they can, and they will, with the backing of the U.S.
They have to, since diplomacy never sticks with their enemies; enemies who only respect will and force.
Their options are very limited, because of their proximity to their enemies, and because the US simply cannot allow Israel a free hand in the region. Last I checked, we're delivering Israel the military means...and we're not doing it so that they can undermine the central goals of the Bush Administration policy in the region. Bush is hell-bent on change in the region, and that change has to be built on the backs of moderate governments such as the one in Lebanon. The US also needs Iraq to develop the capability of securing its borders, electing governments not intent on attacking us, and policing the nation. If the United States can't snap their fingers and get what they want in Iraq, what makes you think that Israel can do so in Lebanon?
Much smaller fish to fry, and a much greater imperative to do so.
Israel isn't charged with overthrowing a government and then as peacefully as possible installing an all new one of a type never seen before in that country. Israel only wishes to destroy Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon. Lebanon's government isn't Israel's issue, as long as they at least have the ability and the will to prevent their own land from being used as a staging ground for incursions into and attacks on Israel.
Lebanon's government has shown neither, so now Israel's doing it themselves. When the dust is settled Israel's presence and the U.N.'s presence will extend deeper into Lebanon then it did two months ago, and Lebanon has Hezbollah to thank for that.
