Your new top15 thread

Danimal · Post by **Danimal** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:46 am

1. OSU
2. Mich
3. WV
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Auburn
7. 'ville
8. Tenn
9. Cal
10. USC
11. ND
12. LSU
13. Wiscy
14. Ga Tech.
15. OU

Terry in Crapchester · Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:19 pm

1. tOSU
2. Michigan
3. West Virginia
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Louisville
7. Auburn
8. ND
9. USC
10. Tennessee
11. Cal
12. Rutgers
13. Arkansas
14. Boston College
15. LSU

BackStabber · Post by **BackStabber** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:22 pm

How 'bout them Buckeyes!!!

MuchoBulls · Post by **MuchoBulls** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:55 pm

1 - Ohio State
2 - Michigan
3 - West Virginia
4 - Florida
5 - Louisville
6 - Texas
7 - Auburn
8 - Notre Dame
9 - USC
10 - Tennessee
11 - California
12 - Arkansas
13 - Rutgers
14 - Boston College
15 - Wisconsin

Van · Post by **Van** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 3:02 pm

1-Ohio St
2-Michigan
3-W. Virginia :-)
4-Louisville :-) :-)
5-Rutgers :-) :-) :-)
6-Boise St :-) :-) :-) :-)
7-Texas
8-Arkansas
9-Auburn
10-Florida
11-Tennessee
12-Cal
13-USC
14-Boston College
15-ND

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:14 pm

Van, what's the gag behind you giving WVU, Louisville, Rutgers and Boise props?

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:23 pm

It's a jab at those of us who believe that WVU deserves the #3 ranking and a possible shot at the MNC, mgo.

PSUFAN · Post by **PSUFAN** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:25 pm

Call it preemptive, USC's case needs a little nudge

Cicero · Post by **Cicero** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:29 pm

1. OSU
2. Mich
3. WV
4. Texas
5. Louisville
6. Auburn
7. UF
8. Tenn
9. USC
10. ND
11. LSU
12. Cal
13. Ga Tech
14. Wisconsin
15. Clemson

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:49 pm

1 Ohio St
2 Michigan
3 Texas
4 WVU
5 Auburn
6 Florida
7 Arkansas
8 Louisville
9 Tennessee
10 Cal
11 Notre Dame
12 USC
13 Wisconsin
14 Rutgers
15 Boston College

SoCalTrjn · Post by **SoCalTrjn** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:52 pm

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. West Virginia
4. Louisville
5. Rutgers
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. USC
9. Arkansas
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. UCB
14. Boston College
15. Boise State

Van · Post by **Van** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:05 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:Van, what's the gag behind you giving WVU, Louisville, Rutgers and Boise props?

No particular reason, other than simply not being in the mood. Check #'s 3 through 11 in my little rankings there and with the obvious exception of the Texas ringer you'll probably notice a pattern there, in stark relief.

I simply gave into the absurdity of the BCS rankings sytem, and there you have it. Just didn't feel like fighting it this AM...

Shine · Post by **Shine** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:09 am

1- Ohio State
2- Michigan
3- Florida
4- Tennessee
5- West Virginia
6- Texas
7- Auburn
8- California
9- Louisville
10- USC
11- Rutgers
12- Notre Dame
13- Arkansas
14- Wisconsin
15- LSU

Vito Corleone · Post by **Vito Corleone** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:35 am

1. tOSU
2. Michigan
3. WVU
4. Texas
5. Florida
6. USC
7. Auburn
8. Tennessee
9. Louisville
10 Kal
11 ND
12 BSU
13 LSU
14 Ark
15 a$m

SoCalTrjn · Post by **SoCalTrjn** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 1:21 am

baffled how a 1 loss Arkansas team is still ranked lower than a 1 loss Auburn team even after Arkansas went in to Auburns house and kicked the shit out of the Tigers

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:09 am

That was a tough one for me.

But I just think from top-to-bottom, Auburn's resume is more impressive. Plus, outside of the Auburn win, Arkansas hasn't beaten anybody.

I just really like how Auburn has two wins over top 10 teams (Florida and a then #6 LSU...and yes, I consider the "at the time" ranking legitimate until the season is over, and we're able to look back at how everybody finished). I don't believe anyone else in CF can boast such a feat.

Hey, if Arkansas was ranked higher in the BCS, I wouldn't complain. But if I have to pick on over the other, I'll take Auburn...for now.

montinelevin · Post by **montinelevin** » Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:08 am

I have finished a statistical analysis of the top 14 teams in the BCS poll. I analyzed how each team performed in every stat available at http://www.ncaa.org/stats/footba...lMenu.html against the average of their combined opponents in the opposing stat (i.e. run offense against run defense).

I then ranked the top 14 teams in every available category. I averaged the ranking (in parentheses) and re-ranked them. This could be seen as a ranking of how the top 14 has performed thus far given the strength of schedule they have played. This is the list:

14. Arkansas (11.44)
13. Notre Dame (9.67)
12. Boise St. (9.56)
11. Auburn (8.89)
10. Tennessee (7.89)
9. Louisville (7.78 )
7. West Virginia (7.44)
7. USC (7.44)
6. Rutgers (7.0)
5. Florida (6.67)
4. Texas (6.22)
3. Cal (6.11)
2. Michigan (6.0)
1. Ohio State (2.89)

Obviously there is a clear separation between Ohio St. and everyone else. Also interesting is the relative positions of the Big East teams. Don't be surprised if Rutgers ends up winning the conference title.
No ACC team in the top 14 (BC is #15). Four SEC teams, three Big East teams, two Pac-10 and Big-10 teams, and one each from the Big 12, independent, and WAC.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:11 am

I analyzed

Here's your flaw, folks.

montinelevin · Post by **montinelevin** » Thu Nov 02, 2006 2:34 am

More Statistics - I know, I really like stats

I took 2006 stats from all 235 div. 1A and 1AA teams. I ran a regression analysis with win-loss percentage as the dependent variable and with several other stats as predictors. I did not include points for or against because that correlation is obvious.

Stats (not including scoring) that have the highest predictive value (t value) in win-loss percentage:

1. Pass Efficiancy Defense (9.099)
2. Rushing Yards (6.545)
3. Rushing Defense (4.862)
4. Pass Efficiency Rating (4.152)
5. Turnover Margin (3.937)
6. Passing Yards (2.967)
7. Net Punting (2.340)

Remember that pass efficiency ratings include passing touchdowns as part of the formula. That is likely why the predictive significance is high. Obviously scoring has the most significance when predicting wins and losses. I was looking for other predictors.

Stats that had no significant predictive value to win-loss percentage:

Passing Defense (yards)
Penalty yards
Sacks
Tackles for loss

BTW, when you include scoring in the regression the only other significant predictors are Pass Efficiancy Defense and Turnover Margin.

Van · Post by **Van** » Thu Nov 02, 2006 4:19 am

You gotta stat there comparing how certain teams choke on the road in big games compared to other teams?

Bet that'd have a pretty deece predictive value!

:-)

Terry in Crapchester · Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:31 pm

Of those who have cast votes, here's the breakdown in case anyone is interested, using 15 points for #1, 14 points for #2, etc.

1. Ohio State 150
2. Michigan 140
3. West Virginia 122.5
4. Texas 109
5. Florida 106
6. Louisville 96
7. Auburn 83
8. Tennessee 70
9. USC 66.5
10. Cal 61
11. Notre Dame 53
12. Rutgers 46
13. Arkansas 40
14. Boise State 19
15. LSU 14

Others receiving votes: Wisconsin 11; Boston College 10; Georgia Tech 5; Clemson 1; Oklahoma 1; Texas A&M 1.

T1B

Your new top15 thread

Your new top15 thread

Re: Your new top15 thread